A tropical depression forms off Florida. And it’s only day one of hurricane season
Hurricane season is off to the races, with the National Hurricane Center identifying a new tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico Thursday evening.
After swirling around in the warm Gulf waters for a few days, the system came together enough for the hurricane center to label it tropical depression two and issue a cone of its predicted path for the next few days.
There are no watches and warnings for this system. However, forecasters warned the depression could dump several inches of rain over Florida later this week and into the weekend — potentially causing some flash flooding.
As of 5 p.m., the hurricane center predicted the system will “remain offshore and be short-lived” for the next few days before dissolving north of Cuba. Forecasters predict it could briefly strengthen into Tropical Storm Arlene, the first of the season, as soon as Friday before weakening back down to a tropical depression.
Located about 305 miles west-northwest of Fort Myers, the depression had sustained winds topping 35 m.p.h. and was headed south slowly at about 2 mph.
Although Thursday was the first official day of the 2023 hurricane season, this depression is the second of the season. The hurricane center recently classified a disturbance near the northeast U.S. coast in January as the first depression of the season.
Last week, NOAA made its initial prediction for the upcoming season, calling for a “near normal” amount of storms: 12 to 17 named storms, five to nine of which could develop into hurricanes and one to four that could strengthen into powerful Category 3 or stronger storms.
Hurricane season began June 1 and ends November 30, with a peak in activity in August and September.
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Despite the official call for an average season, forecasters said they’re not very confident in the prediction and could see the season tilt either direction, into even more activity or a quieter season, depending on how atmospheric factors play out.
This season is unlike any other in the modern era, forecasters said, because of the dueling forces of an incredibly hot Atlantic ocean (usually a sign of a more active season) and the upcoming formation of an atmospheric phenomenon known as El Niño, which is usually associated with a quieter season.
“There’s nothing good about a near-normal season in terms of activity,” NHC Director Michael Brennan said Wednesday in a press conference. “That means there’s going to be hurricanes.”
“This is the time to prepare.”
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This story was originally published June 1, 2023 at 4:33 PM.
