A December system in the tropics is getting stormier, and formation chances changed, too
The tropics are active. There’s still a disturbance out there. And it’s getting rainier and stormier over the waters surrounding the system, according to National Hurricane Center specialist Robbie Berg and his 7:30 a.m. advisory.
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Wannabe — but not yet named — Owen, is a disturbance that was about 850 miles east-southeast of Bermuda in the central subtropical Atlantic that, if it gains name status, would be the 15th named storm of 2022. There have been only 10 named storms in December since 1950, according to Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University.
According to Berg, showers and thunderstorms increased within the system since Wednesday evening. But the disturbance was embedded within a frontal zone that is expected to become more pronounced as Thursday progresses as the low begins to move east-northeastward at 20 to 25 mph toward colder waters and interact with a mid-latitude trough.
“Though the system could show some subtropical characteristics today, its chances to fully transition to a subtropical or tropical cyclone appear to be decreasing,” Berg wrote in the center’s advisory. That said, “significant non-tropical development of this low is expected during the next couple of days.”
Formation chances over the next two to five days dipped from 40% on Wednesday to 30% Thursday morning, according to the hurricane center.
The disturbance was not a threat to Florida or the United States.
Yes, this is all unusual to be discussing a disturbance in the Atlantic in December when we’re more apt to chat about holiday shopping and traffic jams at the malls in Miami. That’s because 97% of tropical formations happen during the June 1-Nov. 30 hurricane season window, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Welcome to the 3% zone.
This story was originally published December 8, 2022 at 9:29 AM.
