A tropical disturbance is likely to soak South Florida next week. Here’s what to expect
The tropics are active with a little more than three weeks left in the 2022 hurricane season.
Two disturbances are on the National Hurricane Center in Miami’s map.
We’ll start with the system that could make Tuesday’s Election Day a wet one for South Florida.
Disturbance #1
A trough of low pressure over the northeastern Caribbean Sea is forecast to move northward over the southwest Atlantic on Sunday where a broad area of low pressure is expected to form north of Hispaniola, according to the hurricane center’s 8 p.m. Saturday advisory.
In the advisory, strong to near-gale force winds were observed over the Atlantic near the Leeward Islands and rough seas are expected Saturday night into Sunday.
The system may seem disorganized over the weekend, but forecasters said that environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development, and a subtropical or tropical depression could form during the early part of the week as the system moves generally west to west-northwest over the southwestern Atlantic.
Formation chances over the weekend are at 50% — more than doubling since the morning advisories.
Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast and portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during the early to middle part of next week,” the advisory said. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands should see heavy rainfall from this system over the weekend.
“Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system,” the advisory said.
The National Weather Service in Miami warns that there will be a risk of minor coastal flooding, gusty winds and hazardous marine conditions that include life-threatening rip currents along the Atlantic Coast from Key Biscayne to northern Palm Beach County.
On Saturday, WPLG meteorologist Michael Lowry posted on his Eye on the Tropics blog that if the system does develop, the worst coastal conditions for southeast Florida would likely occur Wednesday and squally showers would be possible inland into Thursday.
“Tuesday brings a full moon and some of the highest tides of the year to South Florida,” Lowry wrote.
According to the weather service, formation chances over the next five days has grown to 80%. That period takes us through Election Day into Wednesday, when rain and storm chances in South Florida are at 60%. The Keys should escape some of this as chances for storms are 20% Tuesday and 50% Wednesday in Key West.
Disturbance #2
The second disturbance, an area of low pressure, is in the central subtropical Atlantic and is producing showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles east of Bermuda. It was showing signs of formation Friday night or Sunday.
“If these trends continue, a short-lived tropical depression or storm is likely to form tonight or on Sunday while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward over the central Atlantic,” the hurricane center said.
After that, the system is forecast to face a strong cold front by the middle of next week that will stymie further development, Brown said. Formation chances grew from 50 to 70% over the next two to five days. It isn’t a threat to the United States.
Tropical depression Lisa
Lisa became a remnant low and dissipated at 10 a.m., according to the hurricane center. Its winds fell to 25 mph and it moved north into the waters at 5 mph.
Lisa had been about 60 miles northeast of Veracruz, Mexico, in the 8 a.m. Saturday morning advisory, according to the hurricane center’s Jack Bevan. The remnants of the former hurricane had winds of 30 mph with higher gusts at that time and was moving north-northwest near 3 mph. That slow motion toward the north was expected to continue Saturday.
Lisa is no longer considered a threat to land, but it brought a storm surge that flooded much of Belize City when it made landfall on Wednesday.
This story was originally published November 5, 2022 at 9:36 AM with the headline "A tropical disturbance is likely to soak South Florida next week. Here’s what to expect."
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