Hurricane

After a lull, there’s a disturbance in the Atlantic. What the forecast says this weekend

The calm in the tropics ended. A disturbance appeared in the Atlantic Friday afternoon, and while a day later it still didn’t have any tropical characteristics, forecasters say this could change by early next week.

The system, described as a trough of low pressure, was well east of Bermuda Saturday afternoon, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 2 p.m. advisory.

National Hurricane Center map at 2 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 22, 2022.
National Hurricane Center map at 2 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 22, 2022. National Hurricane Center

Forecasters expect the system could gain some subtropical or tropical characteristics as it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 to 20 mph across the subtropical Atlantic.

On his Eye on the Tropics blog, WPLG meteorologist Michael Lowry said the low-pressure area, called Invest 94L by the hurricane center, derived from an old stationary front in the central Atlantic. He called it a “pipsqueak.”

But by mid-week, further development seems unlikely because the disturbance should hit cooler northwestern Atlantic waters and stronger upper-level winds, hurricane specialist Lisa Bucci wrote in Saturday’s advisory. This disturbance doesn’t look like a threat to any land.

The hurricane center is giving the system a low 10% chance of formation within the next 48 hours and a low 20% chance of formation through the next five days.

National Hurricane Center map at 2 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 22, 2022.
National Hurricane Center map at 2 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 22, 2022. National Hurricane Center

What’s the next storm name?

Lisa is the next storm name on the list for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.

Local forecast

Saturday’s forecast for South Florida includes mild temperatures with highs just over 80 and lows around 70. Thunderstorms would be over the Atlantic should any crop up Saturday into next week. But a high risk of rip currents into the week is likely, especially in Palm Beach County Saturday and then along the rest of South Florida’s beaches, the National Weather Service said Saturday.

This story was originally published October 21, 2022 at 3:07 PM.

Howard Cohen
Miami Herald
Miami Herald consumer trends reporter Howard Cohen, a 2017 Media Excellence Awards winner, has covered pop music, theater, health and fitness, obituaries, municipal government, breaking news and general assignment. He started his career in the Features department at the Miami Herald in 1991. Cohen is an adjunct professor at the University of Miami School of Communication. Support my work with a digital subscription
Michelle Marchante
Miami Herald
Michelle Marchante covers the pulse of healthcare in South Florida and also the City of Coral Gables. Before that, she covered the COVID-19 pandemic, hurricanes, crime, education, entertainment and other topics in South Florida for the Herald as a breaking news reporter. She recently won first place in the health reporting category in the 2025 Sunshine State Awards for her coverage of Steward Health’s bankruptcy. An investigative series about the abrupt closure of a Miami heart transplant program led Michelle and her colleagues to be recognized as finalists in two 2024 Florida Sunshine State Award categories. She also won second place in the 73rd annual Green Eyeshade Awards for her consumer-focused healthcare stories and was part of the team of reporters who won a 2022 Pulitzer Prize for the Miami Herald’s breaking news coverage of the Surfside building collapse. Michelle graduated with honors from Florida International University and was a 2025 National Press Foundation Covering Workplace Mental Health fellow and a 2020-2021 Poynter-Koch Media & Journalism fellow.  Support my work with a digital subscription
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