There’s a disturbance in Atlantic, Tropical Storm Karl in Gulf. What the forecast says
Forecasters on Friday are monitoring a disturbance in the eastern Atlantic while keeping an eye on Tropical Storm Karl, which is forecast to bring heavy rain and tropical storm-force winds to parts of southern Mexico soon.
The disturbance in the eastern Atlantic was several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands on Friday and is far from the United States, according to the National Hurricane Center. Forecasters think conditions will be “marginally conducive for some gradual development” over the next few days as the system moves west and then west-northwest at 10 mph over Atlantic waters through early next week.
“By early next week, environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable as the disturbance is expected to move into an area of stronger upper-level winds,” the hurricane center said.
The hurricane center says the wave has a 10% chance of formation through the next 48 hours and a low 20% chance of formation through the next five days.
As for Karl, Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters are investigating the system Friday morning as it slowly moves southeast near 6 mph toward Mexico’s coast. The tropical storm is about 90 miles north-northwest of Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico and about 185 miles northeast of Coatzacoalcos, Mexico, according to the hurricane center’s advisory at 8 a.m. Friday. Maximum sustained winds are at 40 mph with higher gusts. The storm is not a threat to Florida or the rest of the United States.
“Little change in strength is likely before landfall, although it cannot be ruled out that Karl could weaken to a depression before reaching the coast,” the hurricane center said. The forecast shows the center of Karl reaching the coast late Friday or early Saturday.
“Steady weakening is expected after the storm crosses the coastline, and the system is forecast to dissipate over southern Mexico by Saturday night,” the hurricane center said.
A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Mexico from Alvarado to Sabancuy, which could start to feel Karl’s tropical storm-force later Friday.
“Heavy rainfall associated with Karl could produce instances of flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico,” the hurricane center said.
This story was originally published October 13, 2022 at 7:40 AM.
