72 hours before landfall: What FL officials warned, and when, ahead of Hurricane Ian
With about 100 deaths spanning across 11 counties linked to Hurricane Ian, state and county officials are under scrutiny for the timeline of rolling out evacuation orders as the 500-mile-wide storm inched toward Florida’s southwest coast last Wednesday.
All told, over 2 million people were under evacuation orders by the time Ian made landfall last week as a Category 4 storm. But some Floridians who were living in Ian’s path — particularly those in Lee County, which has now reported 55 storm-related deaths — said they did not have enough time to evacuate once the orders were issued.
Gov. Ron DeSantis and state officials have defended the timing of evacuation orders, but noted that the decision of when to issue them is ultimately up to county officials.
“All evacuation orders are handled at the local level,” Kevin Guthrie, director of Florida’s Division of Emergency Management, said at a Monday press conference.
Guthrie specifically defended Lee County officials.
“Emergency management directors do not have a crystal ball,” he said. “I believe that Lee County and their administration — to include their emergency management director, fire chiefs and sheriff — made the best decision they felt was right for their community at that time. And I will never second-guess a local emergency manager on their decision to pull an evacuation order.”
Here is a look at the official announcements in the 72 hours leading up to Hurricane Ian’s landfall on the southwest coast of Florida.
Sunday, Sept. 25: ‘We over-evacuated’ in Irma
1:15 p.m. DeSantis held a press conference with Guthrie. The governor said that Ian — still a tropical storm — was about 660 miles south of Key West. Charlotte Harbor, Ian’s ultimate landing point, was inside the National Hurricane Center’s cone of concern, on its southeastern edge.
Guthrie encouraged all Floridians to “know their zone and know their home.”
“In Hurricane Irma, we over-evacuated residents by nearly 2 million people,” Guthrie said. “Please, take the time ... to find out what evacuation zone you live in. If your home address is not in one of the labeled colors, you do not live in an evacuation zone and therefore you need to know your home.”
DeSantis told Floridians to take the storm seriously, and to heed evacuation warnings from local officials. Later in the press conference, in response to a reporter’s question, he echoed Guthrie’s earlier comment about Irma.
“As Kevin said, with Irma there was an over-evacuation,” DeSantis said. “And so when you put people on the road, that’s not cost-free. There’s traffic, there’s fatalities on the road. So, you want to be very careful about doing that.”
“If there’s an evacuation notice,” the governor added, “the cops aren’t going to come and drag you out of your house. You’re going to make those decisions. But when that is issued, that’s a view that there is hazard by remaining in that area.”
DeSantis noted that the hurricane’s path was uncertain. At the time, he said, Ian appeared to be headed for Taylor County — about 300 miles north of where it eventually made landfall. DeSantis warned that the most at-risk zone appeared to span from Tampa Bay to Escambia County in the Panhandle.
“Don’t get too wedded to those cones,” DeSantis said. He then issued what was, in hindsight, an astute warning about the storm models’ uncertainty.
“Just don’t think that if you’re not in that eye, that somehow you don’t have to make preparations,” he said. “Because the last thing we want to see is see it start to really bear east quickly, and then have folks who are not prepared.”
Monday, Sept. 26: ‘Don’t turn your back on Ian’
Coastal counties in Southwest Florida began to announce evacuation orders starting Monday morning.
10:42 a.m. Hillsborough County hosted a press conference where Sheriff Chad Chronister announced a mandatory evacuation order for Zones A and B, effective at 2 p.m. The storm was now forecast to pass just west of Tampa Bay as a major hurricane. Charlotte Harbor remained in the cone.
12:35 p.m. At a Sarasota County press conference, Emergency Management Chief Ed McCrane announced evacuations for Zone A.
“Based on the information that we have from the National Weather Service, there’s a potential for enough storm surge to affect level A,” McCrane said. “So regardless of the year of your home, regardless of what floor you’re on, if you live in level A you need to evacuate.”
12:54 p.m. Manatee County posted to its Facebook page announcing mandatory evacuations for Zone A and voluntary evacuations for Zone B.
3 p.m. Charlotte County Emergency Management Director Patrick Fuller warned during a press conference of “potentially life-threatening storm surge.” The county announces evacuations for the county’s “Red Zone,” which is home to about 40,000 residents and includes barrier islands, low-lying areas and mobile and manufactured homes.
“Don’t turn your back on Ian. Even though we’re just right there in the side of the cone, we’re definitely in the cone,” Fuller said. “This is going to be a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico within close proximity to Charlotte County. Don’t turn your back on it.”
11 p.m. The National Hurricane Center updated its forecast to predict a direct strike on Tampa Bay on Thursday morning.
Tuesday, Sept. 27: ‘Take your time’
7 a.m. Lee County issued its first evacuation order for Zone A and parts of Zone B.
“If you’re in an evacuation zone, go ahead and leave. Take your time. Go ahead and leave now. But otherwise pay attention to the TV stations,” County Manager Roger Desjarlais said at a Tuesday morning press conference.
Desjarlais added that the county “strongly recommend[s]” people on the barrier islands evacuate, calling the order “as mandatory as can be.”
“We will not be going house-to-house enforcing people to leave,” he said, “but we are stressing the importance of people getting out of harm’s way based on the surge models.”
Desjarlais noted that the storm surge could be as high as seven feet. He told residents who are evacuating to first find a family member or friend who will let them stay before going to a shelter.
“As a last resort, stay at home. Depending on where you live, sheltering at home is not a bad option,” Desjarlais said.
8:40 a.m. Lee County held a second press conference expanding the evacuation area to include all of Zone B.
“As you might expect, the storm is not behaving exactly the way it originally predicted,” Desjarlais said. “That’s the nature of the beast.”
11:08 a.m. The storm’s forecast track shifts south again, and it is now expected to strike Southwest Florida Wednesday evening as a major storm. Collier County, immediately south of Lee County, posted to Facebook announcing a voluntary evacuation order for Zone A.
1:45 p.m. Lee County held its third press conference, announcing a final evacuation order, which expanded to all of Zone B and some of Zone C.
“We now find ourselves in a position of great peril in Lee County,” Desjarlais said.
Lee County Emergency Management Director Sandra Tapfumaneyi said the storm surge could be as high as 8-12 feet, urging residents to “seek shelter now.”
“Do not wait until the last minute,” Tapfumaneyi said. “If you wait too long it will likely be too late to evacuate, so please act now.”
3:45 p.m. Collier County Director of Emergency Management Dan Summers announced mandatory evacuations for Zone A, which includes the coastal areas south and west of U.S. Highway 41.
Wednesday, Sept. 28: ‘It’s time to hunker down’
7:30 a.m. DeSantis hosted a press conference, announcing that Hurricane Ian was located about 80 miles south-southwest of Charlotte County, with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph. The governor also issued a grim message for coastal residents, from Collier to Sarasota counties.
“If you are in any of those counties, it’s no longer possible to safely evacuate,” DeSantis said. “It’s time to hunker down and prepare for the storm.”
11:36 a.m. Lee County updated its Facebook profile picture with this message: “It is time to shelter in place. It is no longer safe outside, on the bridges or roads.”
3:05 p.m. Ian made landfall.
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