Where is Hurricane Ian and when will Florida start to feel it? What the forecast shows
Hurricane Ian is continuing to grow stronger Monday as it quickly moves over the Caribbean Sea, toward Cuba and Florida, which is under a state of emergency.
Where is Ian now? And how strong will it be when it gets to Florida?
Here’s what the forecast shows:
Where is Hurricane Ian now?
Hurricane Ian was about 120 miles west-northwest of Grand Cayman and about 195 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba Monday afternoon, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 2 p.m. advisory.
Ian is a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 85 mph with higher gusts. The hurricane is moving quickly north-northwest at 13 mph. Its hurricane-force winds extend up to 35 miles from the center and its tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 115 miles.
Where is Ian going?
Ian is forecast to strengthen into a Category 3 hurricane by the time it moves near or over western Cuba Monday night and early Tuesday, according to the hurricane center.
The storm is expected to strengthen even more once in the Gulf of Mexico and should be at Cat 4-level strength when it passes to the west of the Florida Keys late Tuesday. The hurricane center expects Ian will then see some weakening, though it should stay at or near major hurricane strength as it passes near the west-central coast of Florida.
READ MORE: Florida Keys expected to stay out of Ian’s cone, but heavy flooding expected
It’s also expected to slow down, which is bad news for Florida’s Gulf Coast. A slower Ian means portions of Florida’s west coast will feel more of its life-threatening storm surge, wind and heavy rain, though forecasters aren’t sure yet which locations will experience the most severe impacts.
READ MORE: Mandatory, voluntary evacuations ordered in Tampa ahead of Hurricane Ian
When will Florida start to feel Ian? Where will it make landfall?
Forecasters say tropical storm conditions could begin Tuesday in the lower Keys, which are under a tropical storm warning, and in Florida’s west coast, which is under a hurricane watch from Englewood to the Anclote River, including the Tampa Bay area. Hurricane conditions could begin along Florida’s west coast Wednesday. Ian’s biggest risk to Florida is storm surge.
As for where Ian will make landfall, that’s still not clear. The hurricane center on Monday said Ian could possibly weaken back into a Category 2 or Category 1 storm prior to making landfall somewhere along Florida’s west coast, likely on Thursday or Friday.
Models suggest Ian’s landfall could be anywhere from the middle of Florida’s Panhandle to just south of Tampa Bay.
READ NEXT: Ian likely won’t head to South Florida but could make an impact. Here’s how — and why
Hurricane Ian watches/warnings
▪ Storm surge watch extended north along Florida’s west coast to the Anclote River.
▪ Hurricane warning in effect for: Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa.
▪ Tropical storm warning in effect for: Lower Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge west to Key West, the Dry Tortugas, Anclote River south to the Card Sound Bridge and Tampa Bay. Warning also in effect for Grand Cayman and the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas.
▪ A hurricane watch in effect for Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay.
▪ Tropical storm watch in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac, Englewood south to Flamingo, the Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge and Lake Okechobee.
READ NEXT: Manatee County issues mandatory evacuation order in Zone A for Hurricane Ian
Miami Herald staff writer Alex Harris contributed to this report.
This story was originally published September 26, 2022 at 12:28 PM with the headline "Where is Hurricane Ian and when will Florida start to feel it? What the forecast shows."
