Tropical Storm Fiona now expected to become a hurricane. Storm warning for Puerto Rico
Tropical Storm Fiona is now forecast to become a Category 1 hurricane by the middle of next week, after it slashes most of the Caribbean with heavy rain and high winds.
Forecasters says it’s too soon to tell whether or how much it might impact South Florida.
Fiona, the sixth storm of the season, is forecast to bring flooding rain to the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico over the weekend before crossing Hispaniola early next week. Forecasters are also keeping an eye on two new disturbances that have popped up in the Atlantic.
The National Hurricane Center says Fiona’s tropical storm-force winds and heavy rain have already reached the Leeward Islands, which are under a tropical storm warning. The storm was expected to move across the islands Friday night and early Saturday.
The forecast then shows the system moving near or just south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Saturday into Sunday, which had their tropical storm watches upgraded to warnings Thursday morning.
Forecasters expect Fiona will turn toward the west-northwest and northwest, bringing the center of the storm near or over Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic) on Monday. Watches could be issued for parts of the island sometime Friday.
Two disturbances
The hurricane center on Friday also began monitoring two disturbances. One of the systems, a frontal low, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms a couple of hundred miles northwest of Bermuda. Forecasters said it will likely not strengthen into a tropical storm due to high-level winds. They gave it a 10% chance of formation through the next two to five days as it quickly moves east, away from the U.S. East Coast, into the open waters of the Atlantic.
The other disturbance is causing showers and thunderstorms in the central Atlantic and could see some slow development early next week as it moves north over the open waters, forecasters said. The hurricane center says it has no chance of formation through the next 48 hours and a low 20% chance of formation through the next five weeks.
Where is Fiona now? How strong is it?
The National Hurricane Center’s advisory at 8 p.m. Friday put Fiona about 15 miles north-northwest of Guadeloupe. The tropical storm was moving west at 15 mph and had maximum sustained winds near 50 mph with higher gusts, a slightly faster clip than earlier in the day.
The forecast shows Fiona’s strength fluctuating through the next few days, with the system nearing hurricane-level strength with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph by the time it nears Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.
The latest forecast calls for Fiona to reach Category 1 status with 75 mph sustained winds on Monday after it crosses over the Dominican Republic and continues strengthening.
“Although Hispaniola’s terrain could cause some weakening in the 60-72 hour period, the amount of weakening will probably depend on how much of the wind field moves over the island or remains over the adjacent waters,” the hurricane center’s 5 p.m. forecast read.
At this point, the hurricane center said, more storm models have come into agreement on a track that steers clear of Florida and to the east of the Bahamas. However, forecasters cautioned that the situation could shift in the coming days.
Tropical Storm Fiona watches and warnings
Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla, Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin. The areas are part of the Leeward Islands, which are at the border of the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean.
Tropical storm warnings are also in effect for Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.
The government of Barbados on Friday morning issued a tropical storm watch for Dominica. The Dominican Republic is now under tropical storm watches for the south coast from Cabo Engano westward to Barahona and for the north coast from Cabo Engano westward to Cabo Frances Viejo.
Fiona’s hazards
“Heavy rains from Fiona will reach the Leeward Islands by this evening, spreading to the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Saturday, reaching the Dominican Republic Sunday, and the Turks and Caicos Monday night or Tuesday,” the hurricane center said Friday. “This rainfall may produce considerable flood impacts including flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain,” particularly in southern Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic.
The eastern Dominican Republic is forecast to see the most rain, at six to 10 inches, with up to 16 inches of rain in some spots.
Miami Herald Reporter Devoun Cetoute contributed to this report.
This story was originally published September 16, 2022 at 7:00 AM.
