A tropical depression could form, and Earl forecast to be major hurricane near Bermuda
Forecasters on Wednesday are closely watching four systems in the Atlantic:
▪ Hurricane Earl is forecast to turn into a major hurricane by the time it nears Bermuda, which is under a tropical storm warning.
▪ Resilient Danielle remains a large hurricane over the far northern Atlantic.
▪ Two disturbances are in the eastern Atlantic, one of which has a high chance of turning into a tropical depression soon.
At the moment, Florida isn’t under a threat.
Here’s a forecast breakdown:
Hurricane Earl
Data from NOAA hurricane hunters on Wednesday afternoon found the Category 1 storm “holding its own” against a “persistent” westerly vertical wind shear that has been impacting it for several days, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Forecasters said Earl, which was about 390 miles south of Bermuda Wednesday afternoon, saw its maximum sustained winds increase from 85 to 90 mph, with higher gusts, as of the hurricane center’s 8 p.m. advisory.
A turn toward the north-northeast is expected overnight followed by another turn to the northeast during the day on Thursday with a gradual increase in forward speed.
The forecast track shows Earl strengthening into a Category 3 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds between 115 and 125 mph, by the time it passes to the southeast of Bermuda late Thursday and early Friday.
Earl could grow stronger and hit Category 4 status by Friday when the system is out in the open water, according to the forecast, with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph. That’s the minimum needed for a storm to be classified as a Category 4 hurricane. It should then start weakening and eventually become an extratropical low.
Swells caused by Earl are expected to reach Bermuda by Wednesday night, and the U.S. East Coast shortly after, causing possible life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend, according to the hurricane center.
A hurricane watch and tropical storm warning was issued for Bermuda.
Earl’s tropical storm-force winds are forecast to spread beginning Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Bermuda is also expected to see one to two inches of rain through Friday.
A pair of disturbances, one could be a depression soon
Of the two disturbances forecasters are watching in the eastern Atlantic, one has a high 70% chance of formation through the next two to five days.
That system, which is several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, has gradually become better defined and could turn into a tropical depression by Friday as it moves west to west-northwest over the Atlantic, according to the hurricane center.
The other disturbance, a tropical wave, is near the west coast of Africa and is forecast to emerge into the Atlantic by Thursday. Forecasters say conditions appear friendly for some gradual development once it starts moving west-northwest over the Atlantic.
The hurricane center gives it no chance of formation through the next 48 hours and a low 30% chance of formation through the next five days.
Hurricane Danielle
Forecasters are also watching Hurricane Danielle, which remains “an impressive hurricane so far north and east in the Atlantic,” though it’s beginning to show signs of extratropical characteristics.
The storm is quickly moving northeast near 16 mph with maximum sustained winds near 80 mph with higher gusts. The storm, which was about 625 miles northwest of the Azores, was still producing “a large area of very rough seas over the central-north Atlantic” Wednesday afternoon.
A slow counterclockwise turn is forecast Thursday and Friday, followed by a motion toward the southeast over the weekend.
Danielle is forecast to begin weakening later Wednesday and should turn into a post-tropical cyclone on Thursday, according to the hurricane center.
This story was originally published September 7, 2022 at 7:33 AM.
