Florida and Cuba could get tropical storm watches and warnings as system develops
Forecasters are closely watching a disturbance that could turn into the first storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season and douse South Florida with heavy rain by the weekend.
The disturbance, the remnants of Pacific Hurricane Agatha, was near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday, dumping rain over the Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Forecasters say the system could become a depression or tropical storm in the next day or two as it moves slowly northeast over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center says tropical storm watches or warnings could be issued for parts of Florida, the Keys and western Cuba later Thursday.
“Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall are likely across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba during the next day or so, spreading across southern and central Florida and the Florida Keys Friday and Friday night, and the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday,” the National Hurricane Center said in an advisory Thursday morning. “These heavy rains could cause scattered to numerous flash floods across South Florida and the Florida Keys.”
The system had a 90% chance of formation in the next two to five days, as of the 2 p.m. Thursday update. If the system becomes a tropical storm, it would be named Alex.
“Model guidance agrees that we will have a heavy rain event starting Friday and winding down later on Saturday. The European model displayed here is calling for widespread 5” or more. Localized amounts could be significantly higher,” NBC6 Meteorologist Adam Berg wrote on Twitter.
“The GFS (American) model is also calling for widespread heavy rain with some amounts flirting with 10”. It’s best to stay indoors if you can Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon,” Berg said in another tweet.
READ MORE: How common is it for Pacific storms like Agatha to cross into the Atlantic?
Forecasters were also monitoring a disturbance with disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms about 150 miles northeast of the northwestern Bahamas, but it dissolved by Thursday afternoon.
Wednesday was the official start to the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA predicts this will be another “above average” season with 14 to 21 named storms, 6 to 10 of which will grow into hurricanes and 3 to 6 that will develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.
READ NEXT: Your 2022 survival guide to tropical storms, hurricanes in Miami, Broward and the Keys
This article will be updated.
Miami Herald Staff Writer Alex Harris contributed to this article.
This story was originally published June 1, 2022 at 6:41 AM.
