Agatha forecast to hit Mexico as Cat 3 hurricane. In South Florida, storms in forecast
5/31/2022 UPDATE: Agatha dissipated completely on Tuesday morning over southern Mexico. The storm’s remnants could cross over into the Atlantic and turn into a tropical depression near the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea later this week, possibly bringing heavy rain to Florida, forecasters said.
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Tropical Storm Agatha strengthened into a major hurricane Sunday and is expected to soon make landfall on the southern Pacific coast of Mexico. Will the storm emerge from its bout with Mexico and threaten Miami?
As of the 7 p.m. Sunday advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Agatha’s winds were 110 mph with forecasters predicting that the storm will gain strength as it approaches land.
Agatha is forecast to touch ground as a Category 3 hurricane on Monday afternoon or evening, producing extremely dangerous coastal flooding, destructive waves and heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico through Tuesday night. Hurricane warnings and watches have been issued from Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua, and eastward to Barra De Tonala.
The question for Florida is what happens after its bout with Mexico’s mountains and terrain? Will the storm regroup in the Gulf and set its sights on the state or elsewhere in the United States?
Forecasters had low hopes that Agatha would survive its journey through southern Mexico, saying it is expected to “dissipate over the rugged terrain of southern Mexico on Tuesday.”
Sunday’s forecast showed a 30% chance that the remnants of Agatha could reform into a tropical depression in the next five days — this time in the Gulf of Mexico.
If the storm does reform into something stronger, like a tropical storm, it would likely ditch the name Agatha and take on the first name of the Atlantic season, Alex. Channel 10 Meteorologist Michael Lowry tweeted that Agatha would only hold onto its name if it maintained tropical depression or storm status the whole time, which is unlikely.
Eric Blake of the National Hurricane Center said over the weekend the message at the moment is to be prepared. We should be, anyway. Check your calendar. Hurricane season officially begins June 1 on Wednesday and, clearly, Mother Nature doesn’t abide by calendars given the first-named storm of the season’s jump start.
“Hurricane season starts next week and so we need to be ready, right?” Blake said.
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Former CBS4 meteorologist Craig Setzer, in a series of posts on Twitter Sunday morning, said tropical effects from the Gulf and Caribbean could be headed to Florida by late next week or weekend.
“Bottom line, we’ll keep an eye on these areas for late week/weekend. Too early to tell where or what if anything for Florida,” Setzer told his followers.
“We’re in ‘watching it mode.’ ”
On Sunday afternoon, 1 to 3 inches of rain with some isolated areas totaling up to 5 inches caused flooded roads across South Florida, WPLG Local 10 meteorologist Brandon Orr said on Twitter, accompanied by a video showing street flooding in Broward County’s Oakland Park. In another tweet, CBS 4 Miami shared a video of a flooded Palmetto Expressway near the exit to 49th Street in Hialeah.
South Florida weather
While Mexico could be facing life-threatening mudslides and other ill effects from Agatha on Monday, according to CBS News, South Florida’s Memorial Day holiday and Tuesday promise to be a wet one, according to the National Weather Service in Miami.
Memorial Day eyes a 70% storm chance — and some could be heavy with gusty winds. There’s a high risk of rip currents along Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach County beaches. The rain chance on Tuesday is 60%.
READ MORE: What can you expect for Memorial Day weekend? That change in the weather’s not a party
Miami Herald staff writer Omar Rodríguez Ortiz contributed to this report.
This story was originally published May 28, 2022 at 5:15 PM.
