South Florida could see flooding and tropical-storm-force winds from Eta this weekend
South Florida is in for a drenching of 6 to 8 inches of rain through the weekend and could see tropical-storm-force winds from Eta starting Sunday morning.
While Eta has since weakened to a tropical depression over Honduras, the National Hurricane Center is forecasting the storm will strengthen as it turns toward the Caribbean Sea on Friday. Thursday afternoon, the Cayman Islands issued a tropical storm watch.
The latest forecast shows Eta crossing Cuba on Sunday as a tropical storm before taking a sharp left into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. That could bring tropical-storm-force winds to the Florida Keys as early as Sunday morning but most likely Monday morning, according to the hurricane center.
Exactly when — and where — Eta makes that left makes all the difference in what impacts South Florida sees. Forecasters noted that the models are split.
“Although the details of the future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, there is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys and the northwestern Bahamas this weekend and early next week,” forecasters wrote.
As of the 10 p.m. update, the hurricane center gave Key West the highest chances (15%) of seeing tropical-storm-force winds on Sunday, while the odds in Homestead (14%) and Miami (12%) were slightly lower.
But the real threat is the rain. South Florida is already waterlogged from weeks of downpours, and the Miami office of the National Weather Service predicted Thursday afternoon that the region could see as much as 8 to 10 inches of rain from Eta in Fort Lauderdale, while Miami and Homestead could see more like 6 to 8 inches.
On Wednesday, the South Florida Water Management District, which is lowering canals and staffing pump stations ahead of the expected deluge, said that the Keys could see the most rain, at 10 to 15 inches.
Craig Setzer, a meteorologist at Miami Herald news partner CBS4, tweeted Thursday that the morning storm models mostly agree that Eta will bring “torrential rains, strong winds, and possible severe weather later this weekend.” He said that “concern increases” if the storm slows as it nears South Florida, which would give Eta more time to dump rain on the state and whip the coast with high winds.
Where is Eta and where is it going?
As of 10 p.m. Thursday, Tropical Depression Eta was moving toward north near 8 mph and was about 85 miles west-northwest of La Ceiba, Honduras. Its maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Cayman Islands. Nicaragua and Honduras are continuing to issue warnings on heavy rain and flooding. The death toll has risen to 19, according to The Associated Press, including 13 victims in Honduras, two in Nicaragua and four in Guatemala.
Eta is still dousing portions of Central America with heavy rain and is expected to continue doing so through Thursday. A risk of life-threatening flooding over portions of Central America also remains. The worst of the rain is expected in eastern Nicaragua and Honduras, with an additional 5 to 10 inches of rainfall expected, with isolated areas possibly seeing up to 40 inches of rain.
The center of Eta is forecast to be over the western Caribbean Sea through Friday, approach the Cayman Islands Saturday and Saturday night, and be near Cuba on Sunday as a tropical storm.
“Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands and Cuba” through Tuesday morning, with 10 to 20 inches of rain possible, the hurricane center said. Isolated areas could see up to 30 inches of rain.
It should be near South Florida by early Monday or Tuesday.
‘Emergency’ moves by the Army Corps
In an emergency move, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers decided to lower water levels at a key conservation area to protect wildlife such as wading birds, deer and small mammals. The vast conservation areas in South Florida are all soaked, with levels at least one foot above where they should be due to recent heavy rains in the region.
Water Conservation Area 3A makes up nearly 800 square miles in western Miami-Dade and Broward counties and is responsible for delivering water to the counties and to Everglades National Park. It’s the only conservation area that is not fully enclosed by levees, with a gap that lets water flow overland into Big Cypress National Preserve.
The Corps opened up three flood control structures “to provide some quick relief from the high-water levels” in WCA 3A, said Col. Andrew Kelly, Jacksonville District Commander. “With the support of our federal and state partners, and the Miccosukee Tribe of Indians of Florida, we now have the increased capacity to move water out of WCA-3A in order to reduce the duration and magnitude of high water levels,” Kelly said.
The South Florida Water Management District has also started lowering the canals and other regional flood control systems. It’s working with the Corps, counties and cities to coordinate preparations for excessive rainfall that Eta is expected to bring.
“District-wide we are all very wet,” said district spokesman Randy Smith. The water management district is forecasting as much as 15 inches of rain in parts of South Dade and the Keys, though the forecast confidence is still low at this point.
For the month, South Florida got 13.14 inches of rain, which is 212% of the historical average for October, he said. That’s 8.95 inches above the average for the month, he said.
The district is also concerned about Water Conservation Area 3A, and is working with the Corps to lower water levels. The area got 7.95 inches of rain in October and was 3.5 inches above the average for the month. He said the main concern is the impact of heavy rain on wildlife, and that the district doesn’t see a risk of flooding for Broward or Miami-Dade.
The Corps said it will continue to monitor the system to determine closure dates for the structures that have been opened.
This story was originally published November 5, 2020 at 7:16 AM.
