Tropical Storm Cristobal forecast: Winds, rain, storm surge from Louisiana to Florida
Tropical Storm Cristobal is steadily moving closer to the northern U.S. Gulf Coast, with tropical-storm force winds, heavy rain and life-threatening storm surge forecast from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana Sunday and into early Monday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Cristobal is about 30 miles south-southeast of Grand Isle, Louisiana and about 90 miles south of New Orleans, according to the center’s 2 p.m. advisory Sunday.
The storm is moving toward the north at 5 mph with maximum sustained winds near 50 mph with higher gusts and is forecast to make a “gradual turn” toward the north-northwest later Sunday, according to the advisory. The system is expected to approach the northern Gulf of Mexico Sunday afternoon.
Cristobal is forecast to see “little change in strength” before it makes landfall in Louisiana late Sunday or early Monday. Forecasters say it will then begin to weaken as it moves inland and will later become a tropical depression again as it moves into Arkansas and Missouri Monday afternoon into Tuesday.
The system is described as a “broad and asymmetric storm,” with its tropical storm-force winds extending outward up to 205 miles mainly east of its center. This means that regardless of its track, forecasters say the storm’s winds, storm surge and rainfall will be felt far away from its center.
Tropical Storm Cristobal: What type of weather will it bring?
Forecasters say tropical storm-force winds will be felt Sunday along the northern Gulf coast from central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans.
Heavy rains are also forecast to continue across north Florida, spreading east to west across the eastern and central Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle into Louisiana, which may produce some flash or surge-related flooding. “Life-threatening” surf and rip current conditions may also be seen along portions of the northern and eastern Gulf coast during the next couple of days.
At least one tornado was reported to have struck in downtown Orlando Saturday, part of the bad weather forecasters say was spawned by Cristobal. Forecasters told the Orlando Sentinel that while the system wasn’t “particularly intense,” it “is wide, engulfing two-thirds of the Gulf of Mexico and reaching into Orlando.” The National Weather Service has sent teams out to evaluate the damage Sunday.
Forecasters are most concerned about the possibility of “life-threatening” storm surge (2 to 5 feet possible) from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, as well as in other portions of southern and southeastern Louisiana.
Storm surge (between 1 to 3 feet) may also be possible from Ocean Springs, Mississippi to Marco Island, Florida including at Mobile Bay, Pensacola Bay and Tampa Bay, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The Central Gulf Coast region is expected to feel Cristobal’s bad weather the most starting Sunday night into Monday, with the heavy rains moving up the Lower and Mid Mississippi Valley Monday into Tuesday, then across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains through Tuesday.
Tropical Storm Cristobal watches and warnings
A tropical storm warning is in effect from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line. It is also in effect for Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.
A storm surge warning is in effect from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. A warning is also in effect at Lake Borgne.
A storm surge watch is also in effect east of Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River.
This story was originally published June 7, 2020 at 9:35 AM.
