System near Bahamas has 70 percent chance of becoming storm. But it’s likely to stay out to sea
The 2020 hurricane season is off to an early start with a tropical disturbance near the Bahamas, although the system appears to pose no threat to Florida.
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center pegged the disturbance’s chance of strengthening into a subtropical depression at 10 percent over the next two days and 70 percent over the next five days, an increase from the 50 percent chance when it first appeared on Tuesday. They predict the system will spin northeast, away from the coast, as it strengthens.
“The pattern is going to take it generally north and eastward away from Florida and the southeast coast,” said Michael Brennan, branch chief of the NHC’s Hurricane Specialist Unit.
He said while it doesn’t appear to be a threat to land, the system could cause some rough weather in South Florida. Unlike tightly organized hurricanes, disturbances are “sort of broad and kind of sloppy” and can cause impacts over a wide area.
“It’s something for people to keep an eye on, “ he said.
The National Weather Service said the disturbance could bring high winds and heavy rain to South Florida later in the week.
If a storm does form, it would be named Arthur. Although the hurricane season doesn’t officially start until June 1, a storm has formed early for the last five years, according to The Washington Post.
Several forecasts have called for an active hurricane season ahead, in part due to the record heat in April.
This story was originally published May 13, 2020 at 10:06 AM.
