When will Florida start to feel Dorian’s effects?
The forecast shows Dorian will make landfall in Florida as a Category 4 hurricane on Labor Day.
But when will the state start to feel the bad weather?
Most likely by the weekend, the National Weather Service says.
But forecasters say it’s still too early to know exactly how — or where — Florida will be affected. What they do know is the storm could bring heavy rain up and down the state over the weekend. That’s just in time for the second King Tide of the season, a higher than usual high tide that usually brings intense flooding to low-lying regions.
Hurricane Dorian is about 370 miles east-southeast of the Bahamas and is forecast to become a major hurricane by Friday, according to the National Hurricane Center’s Thursday morning advisory. The track shows Dorian heading toward Florida’s eastern coast by the weekend but Wednesday’s updates also saw the storm track trending more south, toward Miami-Dade.
The forecast shows possible tropical storm and hurricane conditions are likely Saturday and Sunday, depending on where you live in the state.
As of Thursday, Miami-Dade County has a 50 to 60 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms into early next week, while Broward County has slightly higher rain chances between 50 and 70 percent. The rainy weather lulls Saturday night in both counties, dropping to a low 30 percent, but the calm won’t last long.
Miami-Dade and Broward may start seeing possible tropical storm conditions Sunday. By Sunday night, forecasters expect the counties to start feeling possible hurricane conditions at least until Monday night.
In the Keys, the forecast shows a steady 50 percent chance of rain all weekend, with possible tropical storm conditions Sunday night until Labor Day, when possible hurricane conditions may be felt.
Those living closer to Florida’s east coast, including West Palm Beach, may see tropical storm conditions Saturday night and will wake up to possible hurricane conditions Sunday morning until at least until Monday night.
The Gulf Coast will also be seeing heavy showers.
The Bradenton, Sarasota and Tampa areas can expect 60 to 70 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms into early next week, with possible tropical storm conditions Sunday, according to the National Weather Service’s Tampa Bay office. While Labor Day is looking soggy and breezy, the good news is that the brunt of Dorian seems to be skidding the area, based on the forecast. The weather service thinks those possible tropical storm conditions will be gone by Monday morning.
The detailed forecasts — which include precipitation chances — are considering the storm’s potential impact, but are also looking at wind speed possibilities, according to Robert Molleda, a meteorologist for the service’s South Florida office.
The forecasts will most likely change based on how the storm progresses in the next few days, he said — so Floridians shouldn’t get too comfortable even if the rain chances are looking favorable for your area.
Orlando, for example, see its chance of showers and thunderstorms drop to 30 percent Saturday night. Those rain chances jump to 80 percent Sunday with possible tropical storm conditions, according to the National Weather Service in Melbourne. Once Sunday night rolls around, the area may start to experience possible hurricane conditions, at least until Monday night.
The forecast for those living in upper North Florida, around Tallahassee, has also changed. On Wednesday, it looked like the holiday weekend would be flushed out with rain all week and into early next week, but there wouldn’t be any possible tropical storm or hurricane conditions to worry about this holiday weekend.
It changed Thursday.
The area is still looking at a heavy 60 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms all week until Labor Day, when the rain chance drops to a low 30 percent. But now, tropical storm conditions may be possible at least until Monday night.
The National Hurricane Center is asking people not to focus on Dorian’s exact track, to keep checking local media outlets and weather offices for the latest information, and to make sure they have a hurricane plan in place.
This story was originally published August 28, 2019 at 12:02 PM.
