South Florida now inside Dorian forecast cone. Tropical Storm warning issued for Puerto Rico
UPDATE: Puerto Rico now under hurricane watch, tropical storm warning. What’s next for Florida?
A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch have been issued for Puerto Rico as Dorian continues on a west-northwest course. The latest forecast shows the storm’s winds could begin to affect South Florida this weekend.
By then, Dorian could be a tropical storm again, after a brief stint as a hurricane when it crosses over the Windward Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, the Caribbean island where Haiti and the Dominican Republic are located. But forecasters stress that’s not clear yet.
On Tuesday morning, the storm appeared to be slightly weaker than it was earlier in the day, forecasters said.
“There’s a lot of uncertainty regarding how it will interact with Puerto Rico or Hispaniola,” said hurricane center forecaster Daniel Brown. “The friction of the land causes the circulation to be disrupted.”
Hispaniola has high mountains, which can rip up a passing storm. The latest forecast shows Dorian could hit the Windward Islands — Dominica, Martinique, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada — Monday as a strong tropical storm. St. Lucia issued a hurricane watch Monday morning. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Barbados, Martinique, St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Puerto Rico also is now under a tropical storm warning.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday, forecasters said, with estimated rainfall from two to six inches across the island.
Thursday morning, the current track shows Dorian could upgrade to a hurricane as it passes south of Puerto Rico and over Hispaniola. The storm has stayed steady, according to the forecast, creeping west northwest at 13 miles per hour with 50 miles-per-hour winds.
If Dorian strikes Puerto Rico in its current strength, it would be the first major tropical storm to hit the island since the devastating Hurricane Maria in 2017 that caused widespread outages that lasted months and led to an estimated nearly 3,000 deaths.
Two days before Dorian’s arrival, local media reported the island’s fragile electric grid showed signs of deterioration, with 11 of 16 electricity generators operated by the island’s utility company reportedly out of service.
Puerto Rico’s main radar doppler located in the mountainous city of Cayey, which was decimated by Maria two years ago, was also broken on Monday.
According to David Sánchez, NWS forecaster in San Juan, the radar was missing an important piece. The Federal Aviation Authority was already aware of the problem and would fix it by Tuesday evening, he said.
“For almost a year after Maria we didn’t have a radar, so this is nothing new,” Sánchez said. “It would make our job easier,” but he said the island’s meteorologists would be able to rely on other methods, like satellite images and a smaller radar closer to the northern coast.
After that, forecasters will have a better idea of how the small system will affect Florida and the East Coast. If it survives the mountains, Dorian would find warm water, which fuels storms, and low wind shear, which tears storms up.
“Once it moves north of there, conditions appear favorable,” Brown said.
The National Weather Service said Monday it was too soon to tell what Dorian’s impact on Florida could be. While Dorian’s effect on Florida isn’t yet known, Brown said it’s always a good idea to check that people are fully supplied for a storm.
“It’s a good reminder that we should all make sure we have our supplies and be ready,” he said.
Miami-based cruise company Royal Caribbean International is re-routing three of its ships to steer clear of Tropical Storm Dorian. All originally bound for the Eastern Caribbean, now Symphony of the Seas, based at PortMiami, Allure of the Seas, based at Port Everglades in Fort Lauderdale, and Harmony of the Seas, based at Port Canaveral in Orlando, will divert to Western Caribbean routes.
“We continue to monitor the path of Tropical Storm Dorian and potential impact to our vessels and will communicate any scheduling changes to our guests,” said Melissa Charbonneau, a spokeswoman for the company.
Disney Cruise Line’s ship Disney Fantasy out of Port Canaveral is also switching from an Eastern to a Western Caribbean route, according to Cruise Critic.
Norwegian Cruise Line and Carnival Cruise Line said their itineraries remain unchanged and they are closely monitoring the storm.
At 5 p.m. Monday, a new tropical depression formed well east of North Carolina’s coast. Tropical Depression Six may strengthen into into a tropical storm Monday evening or Tuesday, forecasters said, but it does not appear to pose any danger to land under current projections.
Miami Herald staff writers Taylor Dolven , Bianca Padro Ocasio and Carli Teproff contributed to this report.
This story was originally published August 26, 2019 at 11:18 AM.
