The latest on Tropical Depression 11, storm off African coast
National Hurricane Center forecasters are now calling a storm that is closest to the U.S., and about 485 miles east of the Windward Islands, Tropical Depression Eleven.
The system, one of four the center is watching, was expected to be upgraded by Friday night and followed through, with winds now at 30 mph and moving west at 3 mph as of Saturday’s 11 a.m. advisory.
But that’s not the storm that the weather center is most concerned about.
Tropical Depression Eleven is still expected to dissipate in the next day or so, without causing problems for land, the center said. Eleven already has lost some traction since the 5 a.m. advisory as its winds dropped from 35 to 30 mph and its forward momentum slowed by 2 mph.
A wave rolling off the African coast and 500 miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is growing, however, the center said in its 8 a.m. advisory.
That wave’s showers and thunderstorms are becoming better organized “and a tropical depression appears to be forming,” the center said, putting odds of its formation into at 80 percent over the weekend.
But in the center’s 11 a.m. advisory, that system jumped to name status: Tropical Storm Kirk.
As for the other storms forecasters are watching, a broad area of low pressure currently located about 200 miles south of Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms as of the 2 p.m. advisory. This system could get a boost by Monday as the strong upper- level winds that are currently keeping it at bay are expected to diminish. At that time, the system will be moving westward and then northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, according to the center.
But by mid-week, those upper-level winds are expected to kick in again, which would stifle further development as the system moves closer to the southeastern coast of the United States. The center puts a formation chance into a depression at 20 percent over the next two days and 40 percent through Wednesday or Thursday.
Finally, a non-tropical low pressure system is forming about 900 miles west-southwest of the Azores. Conditions are favorable that this one could gain subtropical or tropical characteristics, forecasters say, and “a subtropical or tropical cyclone is likely to form by early next week while the low meanders over the central Atlantic Ocean.”
Formation chances are at 60 percent over the next 48 hours and at 70 percent through the next five days for the system approaching the Azores.