The National Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on a wave in the Bahamas that could keep your Labor Day weekend in South Florida on the wet side — but significant development is not expected.
The wave is moving west, northwest “with showers typical of September,” said senior hurricane specialist Lixion Avila from the National Hurricane Center on Saturday morning.
On its current path, the wet wave is heading toward South Florida, and the Caribbean islands of Cuba, Haiti, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos, on its way to an eventual berth in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Rain, some of it heavy, could impact these areas this weekend but mostly by Sunday and into next week.
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Avila said there is a 40 percent chance that the wave could form into a depression in the central Gulf of Mexico, sometime after the weekend. That’s a bit of an upgrade over recent predictions. “But we don’t see, at this time, any tropical cyclone formation. We’ll continue to monitor the system,” he said.
But wind shear isn’t aiding the wave’s development as it drifts toward the Gulf’s warm waters next week. The chance of development by Monday morning as it reaches South Florida is only 10 percent, the National Weather Service said in its 10 a.m. Saturday Labor Day weekend briefing.
The National Weather Service forecasts an 80 percent chance of thunderstorms in Miami-Dade and Broward tied to this wave on Labor Day and into Monday night. That’s twice as much as Saturday’s 40 percent chance for thunderstorms. Sunday will see a greater chance, 60 percent, of soakers in South Florida.
Some of this squally weather could bring heavy rains of 3- to 4-inches along the east coast metro areas of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach, localized flooding and the isolated tornado late Sunday into early Tuesday, the NWS Miami office said.
If you plan on swimming between the rain drops, expect a moderate risk of rip currents through the holiday weekend and into Tuesday.
The good news? The potential storms could pull temperatures down to a comfy low of 79 degrees on Sunday night and Monday.