Cold front could weaken Caribbean system, but heavy rain still possible

A brewing tropical system off the coast of Central America is now expected to encounter a cold front Sunday that could keep it from intensifying.

In their latest update, National Hurricane Center forecasters said Wednesday the low pressure system continues to linger near the mountainous coast, preventing it from becoming better organized. That’s expected to change as the storm crosses warm Caribbean waters heading north toward the U.S. coast and gains intensity.

But a cold front packing strong upper level winds is now forecast to cut short any further development on Sunday, they said.

Forecasters warned the swirl of showers and thunderstorms is still expected to dump heavy rain on Central America and Cuba, but the odds of it becoming a tropical depression or storm dropped from 50 to 40 percent. It’s also worth noting that storms blooming late in the season in the western Caribbean have been notoriously tricky to call as they move across warm ocean water. This year, the Caribbean is also experiencing lower than average wind shear, the upper level winds that help smother hurricanes.

In Miami, National Weather Service forecasters warned that even if no cyclone develops, the system could still bring heavy rain to South Florida over the weekend.

This story was originally published October 25, 2017 at 10:48 AM with the headline "Cold front could weaken Caribbean system, but heavy rain still possible."