Miami is ‘abnormally dry.’ Will we see rain by Thanksgiving? What forecast says
Are your plants turning brown? They are missing the rain.
Are you?
South Florida is in its dry season as we head toward Thanksgiving on Nov. 27. The drier than normal month so far looks to be in holding pattern for at least the next week. The ground may be thirsty, but at least we don’t have to worry about flooded streets and lightning-delayed flights.
Here’s what to expect in the week leading up to the holiday:
The forecast look ahead
“We’re, for the most part, going to rinse and repeat each day with plenty of sunshine and mostly dry conditions,” said National Weather Service in Miami meteorologist Chris Fisher of the week ahead.
There’s no real appreciable rainfall forecast over the next week in the Miami area and temperatures will be right around normal — low- to mid-80s for highs, and lows in the 60s through at least Sunday, Fisher said.
Weather Underground, which on Monday looked 10 days out to the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, similarly shows highs between 83 and 81 and lows of 71.
A new normal?
“Even though we’re in the dry season it’s definitely been a drier than normal month,” Fisher said.
There’s been one rainfall day so far in November — a mere 0.17 inch fell in the Miami area on Nov. 2. That’s almost two inches below normal for the month, he said on Monday, a couple of days past the month’s midpoint.
Normally the Miami area sees about 3 1/2 inches of rain in November, a figure that equates with the South Florida Water Management District’s 30-year historical average rainfall totals from 1991 to 2020.
Meteorologists are classifying Florida’s current conditions as “abnormally dry,” including Miami. “Prolonged dry spells will only enhance the potential drought conditions as we head further into the dry season,” Fisher said.
But the dryness is not completely out of the ordinary, he said.
“During the dry season it’s not uncommon at all to have a month or two with very little rainfall. Actually happens quite often. Last year, for instance, in November, we actually only had under a half-inch for the entire month. We only had 0.47,” Fisher said after consulting the service’s database. “As I’m looking right now, I see at least 25 years with under an inch in November. So it’s not too uncommon.”
Rain relief on the way?
So is December going to bring rain relief?
Don’t count on it. December only averages 2.5 inches.
“So it gets lower as we get further into the winter months,” Fisher said.
Thanksgiving traveling forecast
If you’re a student or worker off next week for Thanksgiving and traveling up North, there’s some good news. A warming trend in New York City over the weekend, when many travelers are taking to the skies ahead of the holiday, should bring temperatures up to about 52, with lows around 43. The NYC rain chance is 50% Friday night, then dropping to 30%.
So, don’t expect a blizzard to stall New York airports.
And flight reductions at Miami International Airport, Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International and 38 other airports including JFK, LaGuardia and Newark that service the New York area, were terminated Nov. 17. Air traffic controller staffing has stabilized following the federal government’s record-setting shutdown. Normal operations are expected to resume ahead of peak holiday travel.
MORE: Travel alert: FAA ends flight cutbacks in South Florida and other busy airports
According to AAA, nearly 300,000 Floridians are forecast to travel during the Thanksgiving period of Nov. 25-Dec. 1. Florida has three of the top U.S. travel destinations for the holiday, according to AAA: Orlando, Fort Lauderdale and Miami.
Orlando looks to feature the same weather conditions Fort Lauderdale and Miami will see up to Thanksgiving: Temperatures in the low- to mid-80s, down to the low- to mid-60s, with sunny skies ahead, according to the National Weather Service, Weather Underground and The Weather Channel, which forecasts a slightly cooler average than normal for Florida.
Snowfall will be limited mostly to a few northern spots like northern New England, and snow flurries in Alaska could affect flights there, according to The Old Farmer’s Almanac’s Thanksgiving Weather Forecast for 2025.
