Will incoming Saharan dust keep the storms away? What the Miami forecast says
Several weather conditions battle it out in South Florida this weekend — and one looks to be the clear winner.
The contenders:
▪ Steamy heat with summer-like highs around 90.
▪ Seasonal Saharan dust, the first round of the season, which tends to bring dry air and tamp down storms.
▪ A Florida front, dragging plentiful moisture across the state to bring a strong potential for daily rain and thunderstorms to the Miami and Fort Lauderdale areas.
The winner? The wet weather.
We’ll likely get soaked through the weekend, with afternoon storms lingering into Thursday, said Ana Torres-Vasquez, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Miamit.
The approaching plume of Saharan dust, which can weaken and suppress tropical cyclone formation because of all the dry, dusty air it casts like a blanket, loses out. It won’t be significant enough to suck up all the moisture from a front that was heading toward South Florida on Friday, Torres-Vasquez said.
The storm front
The front, which won’t lower temperatures to any real degree except during times of heavy cloud cover — expect highs in the low 90s, with feels-like temperatures around 100 — was moving across portions of northern Florida Friday morning and gets closer to the Miami and Fort Lauderdale-areas Saturday.
“That’s going to be helping draw the moisture and provide the additional impetus for a lot of the showers and thunderstorms to develop for that widespread coverage that you’re seeing in the forecast,” Torres-Vasquez said. “That front could linger into Sunday, although it’ll have weakened by then.”
But the rain and thunderstorm chances will still be high on Sunday and into the week even though the front will be dissipating. All of the moisture cloaked over South Florida still has to fall and there won’t be enough Saharan dust to sop it up like a paper towel.
The thin layer of Saharan dust that could limit Friday’s soaking will dissipate over the weekend, but the moisture should linger, Torres-Vasquez said. “The competition between the two, so to speak, would allow for more of those showers to develop.”
Instead of having a more easterly flow of winds like South Florida has seen the last couple days, the winds have shifted and are coming more from the south, according to Torres-Vasquez. That shift helps pool a lot of moisture across South Florida and extra instability that fuels summer storms, she explained.
“Later in the week we’ll be jumping more into a summertime pattern ... sea breeze developing each afternoon and we’ll have enough moisture to really lead to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.”
Rain chance for South Florida
▪ Rain and storm chance Friday: 30%, especially after 4 p.m.
▪ Rain and storm chance Saturday: 50%-70%, especially after 2 p.m. Rainfall amounts should be less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts are possible during some of the thunderstorms, which could be severe in spots, according to the weather service.
▪ Rain and storm chance Sunday: 60%
▪ Rain and storm chance Monday: 80% and dropping to 50% in the evening.
▪ Rain and storm chance Tuesday-Thursday: 60%
This story was originally published May 30, 2025 at 10:51 AM.
