Severe weather threat could lead into Memorial Day weekend in Miami
South Florida could give a wild introduction to Memorial Day weekend before offering up a relatively normal summer-like day — heat and chance of storms — on the Monday holiday.
On Thursday, the National Weather Service in Miami said there’s a marginal risk for isolated strong to severe storms for the eastern half of South Florida Thursday and Friday afternoons between 2 and 10 p.m.
The risk level was 1 on a 5 scale, meaning the severe storms would be isolated. As the scale climbs the area of storm coverage expands.
On Thursday, the Miami weather service also issued its outlook for the 2025 South Florida rainy season, calling for a “slight favoring of above normal rainfall, and likely above normal temperatures through the summer.”
Possible hazards
Threat: The strongest storms could include isolated strong to severe winds and marginally severe hail — not gorilla hail of two or more inches in size, but possibly large hail up to an inch.
“An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out,” the service said in its forecast.
Heavy rainfall could also result in localized flooding.
Timing: The highest rain and thunderstorm chances in the Miami and Fort Lauderdale areas stretch from 3 p.m. to 8 p.m. Thursday and 11 a.m. to 7 p.m. Friday. Some rain and thunder are forecast for 3 to 5 p.m. Saturday and 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. Sunday.
Memorial Day: On the Monday holiday, the biggest rain chance is from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. but well under an inch. If thunderstorms roll in, the highest chance is from 2 p.m. to 7 p.m.
Area: The marginal risk area for these severe storms extends from south of Homestead to north of West Palm Beach and includes Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Boca Raton, Belle Glade and Clewiston.
Areas outside the marginal risk section could still experience some isolated thunderstorms. These locations include the Florida Keys, Naples and Tampa.
Key West is looking at rain and storm chances at 10% through Saturday, according to the weather service, bumping to 20% Sunday and Monday.
If you’re traveling to Orlando’s attractions for the three-day weekend, there’s a 20% to 30% rain or storm chance Thursday through Sunday. But chances bump up to 50% after 2 p.m. on Memorial Day Monday.
Heat
KNOW MORE: Feeling dizzy? Watch for these warning signs during South Florida’s heat wave
Threat: Expect an elevated heat risk in the same regions that are expecting storms. That’s south of Homestead up the east coast, taking in Miami-Dade and Broward, beyond Jupiter and expanding to Naples on the Gulf Coast of Florida.
An elevated heat risk means heat index readings — the “feels-like” temperature — of 103 to 107 degrees. These figures would have to hit and hold 105 for at least two hours to trigger a heat warning in Miami-Dade. As of Thursday morning, warnings and alerts had not been issued.
Miami Herald news partner CBS News Miami reported even higher temperatures coming. Meteorologist Ivan Cabrera forecasts low- to mid- 90s Thursday with a heat index in the triple digits.
Memorial Day highs and heat indexes in the Miami area Monday run about 86 and “feels-like” 96 between 11 a.m. and 5 p.m. Saturday and Sunday should feel about the same, with Saturday peaking at a high of 87 with an index of 98 at 2 p.m., according to the Miami weather service.
Key West’s forecast is similar, with highs in the upper-80s, near 90.
Orlando expects highs in the mid-90s Monday. Naples is looking at 90, with a 50% rain or storm chance on the holiday.
Tips: To avoid heat stroke and heat exhaustion and sunburn, drink plenty of water, electrolyte-rich sports drinks or juice. Wear protection like loose, light-colored clothing and apply sunscreen. Don’t leave people or pets sitting inside parked cars while you run into stores, especially with the AC off. Make sure your pets have plenty of water and shade.
This story was originally published May 22, 2025 at 11:34 AM.
