What is causing a solid week of storms in the Miami area and Keys? Forecasters explain
If South Florida weather for the next entire week were to be graded like an academic course it would get a straight C — or 70% — every day from Saturday’s soggy forecast through Friday’s fall doldrums.
So why is the National Weather Service in Miami’s forecast grid showing 70% rain or thunderstorms daily for another week —after an already wet week?
The Florida Keys also aren’t avoiding potentially heavy downpours and storms, either. The National Weather Service in Key West forecasts a 70% storm chance on Saturday, 60% on Sunday and no less than 40% through Friday.
Blame the gray skies on another stalled front, Miami weather service meteorologist Brent Carr explains.
“A very common theme as we’re getting kind of this shoulder season where we’re not quite in winter where the fronts are strong enough to push through the area but they’re strong enough to get down to like Central Florida. So we’re going to stay on the south side — the warm and moist side — of the boundary,” Carr told the Miami Herald Saturday.
This funnel of subtropical moisture from the east-southeast through most of the upcoming work week will be the driver of the wet week pattern, he said.
When will it ran the most?
Carr believes late morning, early afternoons will be the height of the storm activity on most days.
Perhaps a bit earlier in the day on Sunday due to a weak, little disturbance that is forecast to move through South Florida.
From Monday through Friday the early afternoon window, with easterly winds, will bring the sogginess over the east coast before finishing on the west coast.
Some of Saturday’s stronger storms in the Keys could bring gusts up to 35 mph, “blinding downpours and frequent lightning strikes,” the Key West service warned in a short term forecast alert.
What about the heat?
The upshot to the gloomy forecast is temperatures will feel more like the South Florida fall season.
Saturday will be one of the “cooler days,” Carr said, with highs only in the mid-80s.
“It’ll warm up a little bit through the rest of the week and probably get the highs back to the low 90s but nothing crazy. Starting to get past that oppressive July-August heat, more like normal South Florida heat,” Carr said.
Ophelia’s affect
Tropical Storm Ophelia, which has moved over land in North Carolina, will affect Palm Beach County’s coast over the weekend due to elevated seas and a northerly swell generated by Ophelia, the weather service said on Saturday morning. A small craft advisory is in effect until 8 p.m. Saturday.
