How will Tropical Storm Idalia affect South Florida weather? What the forecast says
As Tropical Stom Idalia makes its way to Florida’s Gulf Coast, expect a change in South Florida.
A lot is still unknown about Idalia, but the National Weather Service in Miami expects some squalls, dangerous seas, severe thunderstorms and possible flooding as soon as Tuesday. And in the Florida Keys area, Idalia could bring tropical storm-force winds and storm surge.
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“These impacts are less certain and will be contingent on the track and intensity of this system,” the weather agency said Sunday night in a hazardous weather outlook.
South Florida should see some impacts from Idalia as soon as Tuesday — with some of the worst limited to Collier County and the nearby Gulf of Mexico area.
“Bands of rain with gusty winds will also affect the rest of South Florida Tuesday and Wednesday although confidence is on the lower end regarding the eastward extent of strong winds, coastal flooding and heavy rainfall,” the weather service said in a Monday morning briefing.
At 11 a.m., it added: “Some minor coastal flooding is possible with higher-than-normal high tides with the full moon at vulnerable low-lying coastal locations across Southeast Florida.”
Here’s what to know about the forecast for the week ahead.
What to expect this week in Miami
This forecast may change as Idalia gets closer to Florida:
▪ Monday will be sunny with a high nearing 91, though it could feel as hot as 105 degrees. Showers are likely, with a 70% chance of rain throughout the day.
▪ Tuesday will mostly mimic Monday’s weather, but forecasters expect it’ll be a breezy day with showers likely in the afternoon and at night. A 70% chance of rain is forecast. South winds will travel at 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Expect heat index values up to 108 degrees.
▪ Wednesday will be sunny and windy, with chances of rain dipping to 80%. The weather service predicts showers in the morning and afternoon. Southwest winds will travel at 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Expect heat index values up to 106 degrees.
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▪ Thursday will be another breezy day, though temperature highs are expected in the low 90s. Forecasters expect a 70% chance of rain through the day with likely showers and thunderstorms.
▪ Friday will be sunny, with a high near 93 and a 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Heat index values are expected up to 105 degrees.
▪ Saturday will be mostly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Temperature highs are forecast in the lower 90s, and the chance of rain 70%
What about the Florida Keys?
A tropical storm warning was issued for the coastal waters west of the Lower Keys, including the western Straits of Florida and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, at 11 p.m. Sunday. The alert also covers Dry Tortugas — a remote island 70 miles west of Key West and home to Dry Tortugas National Park.
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours or less.
Meanwhile, a storm surge — an abnormal rise of water generated by a storm over and above the predicted astronomical tides — of 1 to 2 feet is expected throughout the Lower Keys.
This story was originally published August 28, 2023 at 4:29 AM.
