The longest stretch of rain this year is heading to Miami. ‘It looks very, very wet’
That dashing cloudburst that dabbled droplets of rain on your yard’s plants Saturday morning in Miami? Call it a tease to a wet week ahead local meteorologists forecast.
“At this point it looks very, very wet,” said CBS News Miami meteorologist Cindy Preszler.
The National Weather Service in Miami’s forecast grid is a solid gray from Sunday through Thursday. The sogginess starts with a 60% rain and thunderstorm chance on Easter Sunday, keeps on going Monday, and ramps up again Tuesday and Wednesday to 70% before dipping to 60% Thursday and 40% Friday.
“It’s been rather dry over the past couple of weeks so to have chances of rain [every day,] this is probably the longest stretch within a couple of weeks,” weather service meteorologist Chuck Caracozza told the Miami Herald.
What is causing this rain?
Blame (or bless) the rains on a frontal boundary coming down from the north, Caracozza said.
“Basically we’re going to see an increase in moisture with that frontal boundary that is going to come down ... and basically stall just to the south of the area,” Caracozza said.
That lingering front will contain enough moisture to support increased chances of showers and thunderstorms into the early portion of the week.
And then another contributor comes to play.
“A mid- upper-level low will dive down into the Gulf and that may try to stir up an area of low pressure in the Gulf there, which could throw some moisture our way towards the middle of the week keeping the chances of rainfall in play,” Caracozza predicted.
What weather are we looking at?
It’s a bit too soon to predict rainfall inches during the week, according to Caracozza.
“The models aren’t in agreement,” Preszler explained Friday night.
But on Saturday the weather service’s hazardous weather outlook noted several concerns:
▪ Thunderstorms could have frequent lightning, strong winds, and heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding.
Rainfall amounts between a quarter and half an inch are possible in South Florida on Easter Sunday.
A breezy weekend gives way to an east wind gusting over 20 mph starting Monday and blowing as high as 25 mph Wednesday.
▪ Marine conditions deteriorate ahead of that frontal boundary, meaning choppy and high Atlantic seas with swells and crummy beach conditions, along with the gusty winds.
▪ High rip current risk likely for east coast beaches by Monday, the weather service forecast.
Is there a bright side?
“It won’t be a washout by any means but there’ll be chances of showers and thunderstorms each day and areas that do get hit with some of these storms could see locally heavy rainfall,” Caracozza said.
So what’s the bright side, then?
Note, the weatherman said the week ahead shouldn’t be a “washout.” There will be periods when we’ll have breaks from the rain and some sun.
The Keys will also be nice for the holiday weekend, with only a slight chance of showers at 20% Saturday and Sunday night, according to the weather service in Key West. But then rain begins to invade the island chain Monday with a 40% chance and bumps to 50% Tuesday and Wednesday with thunderstorms in the forecast.
Temperatures will also feel more comfortable than they have been so far in this hot spring.
Look for low- to mid-80s highs Saturday and Sunday and lows about 10 degrees cooler into the low-70s.
As the Miami-area work week resumes the weather service forecasts highs around 78 and lows around 72 Monday through Wednesday. Thursday and Friday eyes a high of 80 and low around 74.
The Keys follows a similar pattern, with highs around 80 or just above and lows in the low-70s.
After Saturday’s teasing morning rain, “we’ll get one more day today of relatively dry conditions and most of the showers and thunderstorms are going to stay over the interiors,” Caracozza said.
Forecast around of Florida
Rain is expected in much of the state. Traveling? Here’s what to know.
▪ Orlando: Rain and possible thunderstorm chances are up to 60% from Sunday through Thursday and 50% Friday. Highs in the mid-70s, lows in the mid-60s.
▪ Tampa Bay area: A 60% rain chance Easter Sunday and 40% Monday and Tuesday. Like elsewhere, that front in the Gulf drives rain and possible thunderstorm chances up Wednesday and Thursday to 60%. Highs in the low-80s, lows in the mid-60s.
▪ Gainesville: A 60% rain chance Saturday. Easter Sunday the rain chances drop to 30% but there is a wind and marine hazard warning for Sunday and Monday into mid-week for Northeast Florida. Gusts could be in the 35 to 45 mph range, dangerous rip currents and gale conditions late Saturday into Sunday. Highs in the mid-70s, lows around 59.
▪ Sanibel and Captiva: Easter Sunday ranges from 20 to 50% rain chances and stays gray Monday and Tuesday. Showers and windy Wednesday as the forecast climbs to 70%. Highs in the low-80s, lows in the upper-60s.
