Weather News

It hasn’t rained in two weeks. When will it rain again in Miami? What the forecast says

A man snorkels around the jetty at Bill Baggs Cape Florida State Park in Key Biscayne, Florida, on Wednesday, Feb. 22, 2023. February ended on a hot streak. March kept it going, along with a dry patch.
A man snorkels around the jetty at Bill Baggs Cape Florida State Park in Key Biscayne, Florida, on Wednesday, Feb. 22, 2023. February ended on a hot streak. March kept it going, along with a dry patch. dvarela@miamiherald.com

The last time it rained in Miami was Friday, Feb. 17, at Miami International Airport, and a little over half an inch fell, said meteorologist Larry Kelley from the National Weather Service in Miami.

That was 13 days ago.

“Since then, we’ve been pretty much dominated with this high pressure system locked in across the area. Abnormally warm temperatures, mid- to upper-80s,” Kelley said.

The average temperature for this time of year is 80.

So, 13 days and no rain. Keep counting. You — and your parched plants — have at least a few more days to go before there is any chance of rain.

Plants thirsty? Looking a bit brown around the gills? You’re not alone. Miami hasn’t had rain since Feb. 17, 2023. Only a small 20% chance is forecast on March 6, 2023.
Plants thirsty? Looking a bit brown around the gills? You’re not alone. Miami hasn’t had rain since Feb. 17, 2023. Only a small 20% chance is forecast on March 6, 2023. Howard Cohen hcohen@miamiherald.com

South Florida forecast

“As far as rainfall in the forecast, we do have a weak frontal boundary that’s going to come down this weekend but rain chances are pretty small — only about 10% to 20% as we move into Sunday, Monday,” Kelley said.

“The past week or so it’s been really no chance of rain. It’s been very dry. We will reintroduce those chances, like showers, Sunday, Monday, but by no means excessive amounts of rainfall,” he said. “We are going to reintroduce the mention of showers back into the forecast. Not anything significant.”

That’s a start. A mention.

Highs through the weekend will continue in the mid-80s and a bit cooler Sunday at 80 degrees, with lows in the low- to mid-70s. Rip currents will be elevated along Atlantic beaches by Friday.

For Monday, the weather service predicts a 20%, maybe 25% rain chance.

WSVN’s weather team, citing the European model, suggests 30% rain chance on Monday.

Tuesday, the odds fall again to 10%, Kelley said. But we are still about a week out from the next mid-week.

“Things can change with the tracks of fronts and all that kind of stuff. Especially this time of year,” Kelley said. “Day six, seven. That far out.”

But what is also “far out,” in Seventies speak, is this South Florida dry spell.

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Howard Cohen
Miami Herald
Miami Herald consumer trends reporter Howard Cohen, a 2017 Media Excellence Awards winner, has covered pop music, theater, health and fitness, obituaries, municipal government, breaking news and general assignment. He started his career in the Features department at the Miami Herald in 1991. Cohen is an adjunct professor at the University of Miami School of Communication. Support my work with a digital subscription
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