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Will it be a cool Thanksgiving week in Florida? What about rain? What the forecast says

Thanksgiving looks beautiful on the table. But what about the weather during the holiday week in Florida?
Thanksgiving looks beautiful on the table. But what about the weather during the holiday week in Florida? Miami Herald file

As many of us count the days toward Thanksgiving and family gatherings or just chilling away from the office, our thoughts turn toward ... the weather.

As in, might we be thankful for that, too, in Florida?

Kind of. But have an umbrella and a change of clothes handy, especially if you’re out in the days before Thursday’s feast and football, when kids are off from school and adults are taking vacation from work.

READ MORE: A cold front is heading to Florida. How chilly and rainy will the weekend get?

READ MORE: How low will it go with Florida’s cold front? Check out these forecast temperatures

South Florida forecast

This ominous looking sky in a neighborhood near Pinecrest on Nov. 16, 2022, could be mirrored over the weekend in South Florida. The National Weather Service in Miami forecasts rain Sunday and Monday, Nov. 19-20, ahead of Thanksgiving Day.
This ominous looking sky in a neighborhood near Pinecrest on Nov. 16, 2022, could be mirrored over the weekend in South Florida. The National Weather Service in Miami forecasts rain Sunday and Monday, Nov. 19-20, ahead of Thanksgiving Day. Howard Cohen hcohen@miamiherald.com

George Rizzuto of the National Weather Service in Miami says South Florida can expect another cold front passing through sometime Saturday into Sunday evening. That front will bring the highest coverage of scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly on Sunday and Monday.

Forecasters are looking at a 50% chance of rain in the Miami area and 60% in the Fort Lauderdale area from Saturday through Tuesday.

Some of these storms could be heavy and lead to flooding, the service warns in a hazardous weather outlook. The risk for rip currents elevates Saturday into the week along Atlantic beaches, and marine conditions will deteriorate for small boats on Friday and Saturday, with high seas and winds rising Sunday and Monday.

The Florida Keys also has a greater than even chance that day-trippers and residents hoping for afternoons out on the water or strolls on Duvall Street for burgers and brews are going to juggle sun with showers. That same 50% range runs from Saturday to Tuesday. Sunday carries a 60% chance and some of that wetness declines on Tuesday’s 40% chance.

“The front probably will not make a clean sweep through the area so it’s probably going to linger just over our area or just south of our area. So Tuesday is looking unsettled as well —similar to Sunday and Monday, about 50 to 60% chances of rain with the highest chances near the east coast metro areas,” Rizzuto said.

That front, which could bring temperatures to the low-80s and low-70s as highs and lows in South Florida and the Keys over the weekend through Wednesday, is expected to weaken or get swept away late Tuesday.

“We get some drier air coming in by Wednesday, Rizzuto said.

Thanksgiving Day in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties, as well as the Florida Keys, should be mostly dry and sunny with a high near 82 or 83 in Key West, according to the weather service in Miami. Thursday’s forecast calls for a 20% rain chance.

READ MORE: Taking a trip for Thanksgiving? What you’ll find on Florida roads and at gas stations

Traveling for Thanksgiving?

Orlando: If you plan to drive to the Orlando area to spend a couple days at Disney, Universal or SeaWorld you can expect mostly sunny skies and comfy temperatures in the upper-60s to mid-70s over the weekend and a warming trend by Tuesday to the mid- and upper-70s. Lows will be in the 60s, but a nippy upper-50s on Saturday and Sunday. Rain chances are in the 20% range Saturday through Thanksgiving Day.

On the holiday, expect a high of 79 and north winds blowing five to 10 mph.

Gainesville: Visiting the kids in the college town? Expect mostly cloudy skies on Saturday and Sunday with temperatures running about 63 degrees down to 47 on Saturday and 58 down to 47 on Sunday. Rain chances increase to 50% Tuesday as temperatures run from a low around 58 and a high about 73.

Thanksgiving Day in the dorm? A 20% rain chance outside and a high near 74.

Tampa Bay: Expect a mostly sunny and warm 76 degrees Saturday with upper-50s nights over the weekend before clouds move in Sunday and rain odds rise Monday and Tuesday at 40% and 50%, respectively, according to the weather service.

Thanksgiving Day in Bradenton has a 20% rain chance and highs near 80.

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Howard Cohen
Miami Herald
Miami Herald consumer trends reporter Howard Cohen, a 2017 Media Excellence Awards winner, has covered pop music, theater, health and fitness, obituaries, municipal government, breaking news and general assignment. He started his career in the Features department at the Miami Herald in 1991. Cohen is an adjunct professor at the University of Miami School of Communication. Support my work with a digital subscription
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