Florida weekend to bring a ‘trial run’ cold front. How low will the temperature go?
A cold front is coming, and that’s welcome news for many — even for some of the forecasters whose job it is to track such things.
“I’m ready for the cold temperatures, trust me,” said a chuckling meteorologist Ana Torres-Vazquez from the National Weather Service in Miami.
A cold front Thursday into Friday should drop through to South Florida. But there’s a price for the relief:
“Ahead of that front is when we could have the higher possibility for chances for rain, because that front will basically kind of draw all that moisture towards it,” Torres-Vazquez said.
How much rain can we expect?
Expect scattered to numerous showers on Thursday, the wettest day, except in the Keys where Wednesday seems to be its high point. The probability range is between 50% to 75%.
The highest rain chances are closer to Lake Okeechobee. That’s because with the front dropping through Florida slowly, the most moisture will be closer to the front — so that puts it near Orlando in Central Florida and Lake Okeechobee, Torres-Vazquez said.
Rainfall amounts should be up to three-quarters of an inch between Thursday and Friday, with some isolated areas getting an inch or more.
“But it’s not going to be your tropical event that just drops and drops a lot of rain,” Torres-Vazquez said.
How low will the temperature go?
“It’s not going to be a large dip in temperature, unfortunately,” Torres-Vazquez said.
Once the front comes through, South Florida and other parts of the state will see drier air move through and humidity drop considerably from the sticky start of the week. Lower temperatures also will arrive, with lower being relative in the Keys. Key West is looking at the mid-70s as lows — 76 and 77 Thursday to Saturday.
Expect 70, 71, 72 degrees along South Florida’s east coast. Some areas inland and near Lake Okeechobee or Bradenton and the Tampa Bay area, expect lower 60s, like 63 or 64, Torres-Vazquez said.
Farther north, Gainesville and Tallahassee should dip into the chilly mid-50s Thursday and Friday.
“That’s the first hint of a cold front, one of those first trial runs, so to speak, for the season,” Torres-Vazquez said.
And then?
“There are suggestions from the model that there could be another front that comes through later, we’re talking maybe the start of next week,” she said. “There’s still a lot of uncertainty with it so it’s not a slam dunk, really, but maybe that one could usher in more officially the dry season. We’ll have to wait and see.”
Humidity drop
When will we feel a noticeable drop in humidity from the heavy first half of the week?
Saturday and Sunday, Torres-Vazquez said.
“We could see humidity values drop a little bit in terms of becoming a little more reminiscent of the dry season of like a January, February day, and even into next week,” she said.
Expect comfier temperatures running mid-70s to mid-80s in South Florida over the weekend, and upper 50s to lower 80s in Gainesville and low 60s to low 80s in Orlando.
This story was originally published October 12, 2022 at 5:15 AM.
