Weather News

System in the Gulf has a high chance of turning into a tropical cyclone, forecasters say

A disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico is becoming better organized and has a high chance of formation, according to the National Hurricane Center.
A disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico is becoming better organized and has a high chance of formation, according to the National Hurricane Center. National Hurricane Center

A disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico is becoming better organized and now has a high chance of turning into a tropical depression soon, forecasters said on Friday afternoon.

The National Hurricane Center at 2 p.m. upped the system’s formation chances again from 60% to a high 70% for the next two to five days. Forecasters said the system, which is not a threat to Florida, could turn into a tropical depression sometime Friday or Saturday as it moves northwest across the Gulf.

“However, by Saturday night, the system is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico, which will end its chances of development,” according to the hurricane center.

Regardless of development, forecasters expect the system will bring heavy rain to portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas over the weekend. As of the 2 p.m. advisory, the system was producing showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche.

An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter plane on Friday afternoon went to investigate the system.

NOAA’s revised prediction says there could be 11 to 17 named storms before the Atlantic’s 2022 hurricane season ends on Nov. 30. The next storm name on the list is Danielle.

This story was originally published August 19, 2022 at 6:37 AM.

Michelle Marchante
Miami Herald
Michelle Marchante covers the pulse of healthcare in South Florida and also the City of Coral Gables. Before that, she covered the COVID-19 pandemic, hurricanes, crime, education, entertainment and other topics in South Florida for the Herald as a breaking news reporter. She recently won first place in the health reporting category in the 2025 Sunshine State Awards for her coverage of Steward Health’s bankruptcy. An investigative series about the abrupt closure of a Miami heart transplant program led Michelle and her colleagues to be recognized as finalists in two 2024 Florida Sunshine State Award categories. She also won second place in the 73rd annual Green Eyeshade Awards for her consumer-focused healthcare stories and was part of the team of reporters who won a 2022 Pulitzer Prize for the Miami Herald’s breaking news coverage of the Surfside building collapse. Michelle graduated with honors from Florida International University and was a 2025 National Press Foundation Covering Workplace Mental Health fellow and a 2020-2021 Poynter-Koch Media & Journalism fellow.  Support my work with a digital subscription
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