Disturbance slightly better organized as it heads for the Gulf. What the forecast says
By Michelle Marchante and
Devoun Cetoute
A disturbance moving over southeastern Mexico has become slightly better organized and is on track to move into the Gulf of Mexico soon, forecasters said.
National Hurricane Center
A disturbance moving over southeastern Mexico has become slightly better organized and is on track to soon move into the Gulf of Mexico, forecasters said.
The system, which was producing showers and thunderstorms Thursday night, is forecast to emerge tomorrow morning into the Bay of Campeche, where an area of low pressure could form, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 8 p.m. advisory.
Once it enters the Gulf of Mexico, the disturbance could form into a tropical depression on Friday or Saturday, forecasters said. By Saturday night, however, it is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico which will end its chances of development.
At the moment, the system is not a threat to Florida.
The hurricane center also upped the system’s formation chances from 30% to 40% for the next 48 hours and through the next five days.
An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter plane is scheduled to investigate the system Friday, if necessary.
NOAA’s revised prediction says there could be 11 to 17 named storms before the Atlantic’s 2022 hurricane season ends on Nov. 30. The next storm name on the list is Danielle.
This story was originally published August 18, 2022 at 7:54 AM.
Michelle Marchante covers the pulse of healthcare in South Florida and also the City of Coral Gables. Before that, she covered the COVID-19 pandemic, hurricanes, crime, education, entertainment and other topics in South Florida for the Herald as a breaking news reporter. She recently won first place in the health reporting category in the 2025 Sunshine State Awards for her coverage of Steward Health’s bankruptcy. An investigative series about the abrupt closure of a Miami heart transplant program led Michelle and her colleagues to be recognized as finalists in two 2024 Florida Sunshine State Award categories. She also won second place in the 73rd annual Green Eyeshade Awards for her consumer-focused healthcare stories and was part of the team of reporters who won a 2022 Pulitzer Prize for the Miami Herald’s breaking news coverage of the Surfside building collapse. Michelle graduated with honors from Florida International University and was a 2025 National Press Foundation Covering Workplace Mental Health fellow and a 2020-2021 Poynter-Koch Media & Journalism fellow. Support my work with a digital subscription
Miami Herald Cops and Breaking News Reporter Devoun Cetoute covers a plethora of Florida topics, from breaking news to crime patterns. He was on the breaking news team that won a Pulitzer Prize in 2022. He’s a graduate of the University of Florida, born and raised in Miami-Dade. Theme parks, movies and cars are on his mind in and out of the office.
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