A disturbance is developing in the Gulf of Mexico. What the forecast shows
By Michelle Marchante ,
Howard Cohen and
Devoun Cetoute
The latest contender to take this hurricane season’s “D” name — Danielle, in this case — is likely to remain unnamed this weekend.
But not impossible.
The disturbance that formed Friday offshore of southeastern Louisiana in the Gulf of Mexico has a low 20% chance of formation over the next two to five days, the National Hurricane Center said in its 8 p.m. Saturday report.
National Hurricane Center’s 8 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 13, 2022, forecast map shows a disturbance near Texas with a 20% chance of development. NHC
The weak low pressure area in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico was still producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it moved west-southwestward on an approach to the Texas coast, which is expected later Saturday night.
The system should then move inland over southern Texas on Sunday.
“Regardless of development, heavy rains are forecast across southern Texas through Monday, which could cause localized areas of flash flooding,” the report read.
“We’re watching the northern Gulf as a frontal boundary sweeps that way. Plenty of mid-level spin and moisture are being observed,” meteorologist Zach Covey of CBS12 in West Palm Beach said on Twitter on Friday. “If that spin can generate a low, it’s possible we get a quick tropical depression before it moves into Texas late weekend.”
NOAA’s recently revised prediction says there could be 11 to 17 named storms before the Atlantic’s 2022 hurricane season ends on Nov. 30.
BREAKING | We're watching the northern Gulf as a frontal boundary sweeps that way. Plenty of mid-level spin and moisture are being observed. If that spin can generate a low, it's possible we get a quick tropical depression before it moves into Texas late weekend. #tropicspic.twitter.com/iBmiHQpc6H
Miami Herald consumer trends reporter Howard Cohen, a 2017 Media Excellence Awards winner, has covered pop music, theater, health and fitness, obituaries, municipal government, breaking news and general assignment. He started his career in the Features department at the Miami Herald in 1991. Cohen is an adjunct professor at the University of Miami School of Communication.Support my work with a digital subscription
Michelle Marchante covers the pulse of healthcare in South Florida and also the City of Coral Gables. Before that, she covered the COVID-19 pandemic, hurricanes, crime, education, entertainment and other topics in South Florida for the Herald as a breaking news reporter. She recently won first place in the health reporting category in the 2025 Sunshine State Awards for her coverage of Steward Health’s bankruptcy. An investigative series about the abrupt closure of a Miami heart transplant program led Michelle and her colleagues to be recognized as finalists in two 2024 Florida Sunshine State Award categories. She also won second place in the 73rd annual Green Eyeshade Awards for her consumer-focused healthcare stories and was part of the team of reporters who won a 2022 Pulitzer Prize for the Miami Herald’s breaking news coverage of the Surfside building collapse. Michelle graduated with honors from Florida International University and was a 2025 National Press Foundation Covering Workplace Mental Health fellow and a 2020-2021 Poynter-Koch Media & Journalism fellow. Support my work with a digital subscription
