Can Saharan dust keep the rain and floods away from South Florida? What forecasters say
When will Noah’s Ark run aground in South Florida?
After days and nights of rain and more days and nights to come of rain and ongoing flood watches, when will we dry out?
Ana Torres-Vazquez of the National Weather Service in Miami may have the relief date — and the savior is coming from more than 6,000 miles away.
Saharan dust, do your stuff.
READ MORE: What is Saharan dust?
Still early, and some room for uncertainty, but some of the global models are showing that a layer of Saharan dust could be making its way close to South Florida Sunday into Monday, Torres-Vazquez said.
“If that materializes then we should have drier conditions as that kind of helps suppress any kind of development of showers,” she said. “If it doesn’t, we could see a continuation of generally the kind of the afternoon shower pattern that we usually see in Florida during the summer.”
The National Weather Service is forecasting a 30% chance of rain on Sunday afternoon after 2 p.m. And that percentage drops to 10% Monday night.
It seems we haven’t seen 10% in these parts since rain totals hit nearly 13 inches in Biscayne Park and nearly 15 inches in Hollywood after last weekend’s visit from a tropical disturbance that turned into Tropical Storm Alex on Sunday after exiting the state.
Even without the blessings of the dusts down in Africa, South Florida could see relief from the wetness from another weather development.
“It looks like once we get to the end of the weekend and the start of next week we should have an area of high pressure building over South Florida and generally southeasterly-easterly winds that’ll allow for some dryout, at least for those few days,” Torres-Vazquez said.
Flood watch
A flood watch was extended through Thursday “for a lot of the areas that have received double digit rain amounts over the last ... almost two weeks,” the forecaster said.
Thursday and Friday will continue to see the seasonal kind of afternoon showers developing every afternoon at a 60% chance, with Saturday at 40%.
“It’s really a concern because we’ve had so much rain already. Even if it’s kind of a garden variety shower or thunderstorm it could have flooding impacts ... like what was happening in Cutler Bay,’” she said.
That flooding stranded hundreds of residents in Cutler Bay’s Saga Lake neighborhood. Cutler Bay Mayor Tim Meerbott called the rain totals, which came not from a hurricane or even a tropical storm, “unprecedented” in a video posted Tuesday.
“This has never happened in Cutler Bay,” Meerbott told the Miami Herald.
The weather service’s message?
“I would tell people to stay weather aware,” Torres-Vazquez said. “Keep track of any watches and advisories that we continue to issue and as they see ponding or any kind of flooding don’t try to cross the waters. That’s always the best advice that we can give. Stay tuned, and stay safe.”
The current flood watch, which extends through Thursday evening, includes coastal and metro portion of South Florida, including Miami-Dade and Broward.
Weather forecast
▪ Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms for the rest of the week into the weekend could become strong to severe with potentially damaging wind gusts up to 50 mph, along with lightning.
▪ Waterspouts are possible with any showers and storms over South Florida waters.
▪ There is a moderate risk for rip currents at Palm Beach County beaches.
▪ A chance of isolated thunderstorms exists over the Florida Keys, too, Thursday through Tuesday, but though some of these could be strong with lightning and strong wind gusts the percentage chance — 30% — is less than nearby Miami-Dade.
The tropics
A silver lining?
There is no tropical development in the next two days, according to the National Hurricane Center.
And Saharan dust, which is already near and in the Caribbean can impede storm development.
This story was originally published June 8, 2022 at 1:11 PM.
