Can you trust the early hurricane predictions you see on Facebook? It’s complicated.
From Biloxi to Miami to Myrtle Beach to the Outer Banks, people who have lived through a busy Atlantic hurricane season know all too well how serious hurricanes can be, especially once the storm systems hit warmer waters.
For the last seven years, tropical cyclones have formed before June 1, the official start of the season. The National Hurricane Center began issuing their hurricane forecasts this month, and national weather officials are even considering changing the start of the season to May.
“There has been a lot of pre-season storms over the course of the last decade or so,” said Benjamin Schott, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in New Orleans.
The NHC’s forecast predicts no tropical development in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico for the next five days. However, brightly covered-photos showing a storm system with a defined eye are popping up on Facebook and getting shared thousands of times.
The system is shown forming in the Caribbean and moving into the Gulf of Mexico by the end of May.
The images come from the Global Forecast System models, an early indicator of severe tropical weather. And while they can predict future storm development, meteorologists also warn of using them as your official source for storm season because forecasts often change due to other variables that can affect strength and track.
What is the GFS model?
The GFS is an early storm predictor model is often widely shared on Facebook. Tropical Storm Central, a weather-related Facebook page with more than 150,000 followers, has been publishing GFS images of a potential tropical system in the Gulf over the last week.
Schott, however, cautions against using the GFS models exclusively. He said that the model projects 14 days out and that it often overdevelops storms.
“If you don’t know this bias, you can get hooked that these things are going to occur,” Schott said. “(But) the majority of the meteorological community that knows the biases, will tell you it is a very unlikely scenario.”
He said last weekend that an 81-year-old woman called in concerned about a picture she had seen on Facebook telling her a hurricane would hit in two weeks, when the likelihood of that happening is very low.
TV meteorologists agree.
The Weather Channel meteorologist Scott Pilé has been urging his hundreds of thousands of Facebook followers to follow official forecasts as the GFS models pop up on social media.
Pilé, who worked in New Orleans before moving to Atlanta for his new job, said the GFS models are often bullish, and other factors are at play that could weaken the systems.
“Upper-level wind shear helps to tear apart developing tropical cyclones & limit their ability to organize,” he posted Tuesday. “Despite the GFS highlighting a bonafide tropical system, I remain highly speculative given this upper level setup early next week.”
Tropical Storm Central often reminds its followers that the GFS models are early predictors and can often change.
Active hurricane season predicted
While hurricane tracks and strength are challenging to predict weeks out, officials do predict an above-active hurricane season this year as water temperatures rise.
“Sea surface temperatures and the global pattern as we move into the summer is set up for a fairly active if not an above normal season,” Schott said.
Pilé said that temperatures in the Gulf and western Caribbean are running 1-5 degrees warmer than average.
“Near record heat over the Gulf South the next 3-4 days will aid in additional warming,” he said on Facebook. “Indications point towards above average hurricane season.”
Schott said people who live in the path of hurricanes should get their safety kids and plan ready now. “It only takes one storm,” he said.
This story was originally published May 18, 2022 at 3:41 PM with the headline "Can you trust the early hurricane predictions you see on Facebook? It’s complicated.."
