Could king tide and a disturbance at sea bring heavy rains for Florida’s weekend?
Be careful what you ask of the National Weather Service in Miami.
You might not like the answer. But meteorologists have to keep it real.
So on Tuesday, when a Southeast Florida “weather enthusiast” sent a plea to the weather service on Twitter — “Can you keep the rain away for this Saturday?” — the answer was not what this enthusiast probably wanted to hear.
“Trying to! Right now, Saturday looks to be one of the wetter days this week,” the service said. With a ray of sunshine to make it go down easier.
“Since it is only Tuesday there is still time for the forecast to change.”
That said, on Tuesday morning, Saturday’s rain chance was given at 70%. By the afternoon, a check saw it bumped up to 80%.
Why it might rain this week
Seems there’s an area of low pressure in the northeastern Caribbean that is being eyed by the National Hurricane Center. The system of disorganized showers and thunderstorms was east of a surface trough extending from the central Bahamas northward over adjacent southwestern Atlantic waters on Tuesday afternoon.
By Wednesday, the system was about 200 miles east of the east coast of Florida and its wetness was well to the east of its axis due to strong upper-level winds, the center’s Hurricane Specialist Robbie Berg said in his report. Those winds are not expected to be conducive for significant development of this system as it moves slowly north and then northeast off the southeastern United States coast during the next few days.
The system has just a 10% chance of development over the next five days. By the weekend, the system is forecast to interact with a front near the coast of the southeastern U.S.
This positioning could move some wet weather in Florida’s general direction as well as along the U.S. East Coast, the hurricane center said. South Florida is likely to get some of that rain, even if a tropical system seems unlikely. The Florida Panhandle and Jacksonville will get more of that potentially wet and windy weather.
Columbus Day, on Monday, is looking at a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms in Miami, Orlando and Jacksonville, according to the weather service. The high will be in the mid-80s.
There’s another happenstance this week, too.
King tide time
King tides, the highest of the high tides, are a natural annual occurrence. But as the world warms from climate change, sea level rise is pushing those tides higher.
This year, the peak king tides are predicted to fall on Oct. 6 and Nov. 4, with some less dramatic peaks before and after. On Wednesday, high tide is at 8:43 a.m. and 8:59 p.m.
Just how high the tides get depends on how hard the wind is blowing and in which direction, if it rains, and even the speed of the current off Florida’s coast.
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Miami will have portable stormwater pumps positioned at Southeast 14th Street and Brickell Bay Drive, Southeast 10th Street and Brickell Plaza, the east end of Northeast 23rd Street at Biscayne Bay, Northeast 55th Street and 7th Avenue, and at the Little River Pocket Park.
“We have additional pumps that can be deployed to one or two other “hot spots” as needed, but in our experience, these will not be necessary for the upcoming King Tides based on the predicted tide heights,” said Chris Bennett, Miami’s deputy chief resilience officer.
Miami Beach plans to place 10 portable pumps in flood-prone spots, and it has two vacuum trucks that it can send to soak up standing water.
The daily forecast
Here’s some of what to expect, according to the weather service’s hazardous weather outlook.
For South Florida, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible every day as we approach the weekend. That activity increases by Thursday night when the chance for storms reaches 60%.
“Locally heavy rainfall and a few stronger storms could become a concern,” the center said, with minor coastal flooding a possibility during the high tide.
Temperatures will hit the mid-80s.
Jacksonville and Gainesville similarly had an 80% storm chance for Saturday, four days out.
Orlando and Bradenton, a bit less — 70%.
This story was originally published October 5, 2021 at 4:57 PM.
