A disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico could bring more rain to north Florida this week
A disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico inching toward Florida could bring heavier rains to the Panhandle and South Georgia this week, even if it doesn’t develop into a tropical depression or storm.
Its chances of formation increased Tuesday evening to 50% for the next 48 hours, but it’s still too soon to say if it will affect South Florida’s rain chances, according to the National Weather Service. Heavy rainfall could be possible across portions of the Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia on Wednesday and Thursday, even if the disturbance does not develop into a depression.
There’s a 40% chance of rain in Miami-Dade and Broward counties. The rest of the week looks slightly better in Miami-Dade and Broward counties with rain chances ranging between 30% and 40%. There’s an exception Thursday in Broward, with rain chances set to be at 50%. In the Keys, expect a 20% to 30% chance of rain this week.
Where is the disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico? What about Larry?
As of Tuesday’s 8 p.m. advisory, the disturbance was producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the south-central Gulf of Mexico, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Upper-level winds should decrease its chances for development as it slowly moves northeast over the open waters of the Gulf, according to forecasters. However, conditions could become “marginally conducive for some limited development” once the system nears the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday.
It should then move over parts of Florida and enter the Atlantic, where it could develop further.
As for Hurricane Larry, as of the 11 p.m. update it was a large Category 3 storm moving northwest at 12 mph in the Atlantic with maximum sustained winds near 115 mph with higher gusts. Its tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 185 miles from its center.
On the forecast track, Larry should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, prompting a tropical storm watch for the island.
Its track keeps it away from the United States and some gradual weakening is possible in the next few days as it moves over the Atlantic’s open waters.
However, Larry’s swells are still forecast to continue affecting the Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas through midweek and impact Bermuda by the weekend.
“Significant swells,” which could cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions, could reach the East Coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek as well, according to the hurricane center.
This story was originally published September 7, 2021 at 7:29 AM.
