Disturbance near the Bahamas could become the first tropical system of the season
South Florida Hurricane Awareness Week continues this week, the National Weather Service tells us.
And just in case the start of the hurricane season in a little over two weeks isn’t on your mind yet, Mother Nature is giving a hint.
The National Hurricane Center is eyeing an area of low pressure near the Bahamas and expects it to develop this weekend to the northeast of the islands.
Time to prepare for hurricane season
“This is a reminder that hurricane season is coming up real soon and a good reminder to start thinking about what your risk is and get ready in the general sense,” said Michael Brennan, branch chief of the center’s Hurricane Specialist Unit.
Brennan said models suggest some development near, or north, of the Bahamas sometime this weekend that could start to acquire some subtropical characteristics.
“It doesn’t look like a tropical cyclone and it’s not unusual this time of the year,” Brennan said of these kind of systems that tend to be “broader and sloppier.”
The hurricane center’s models suggest a Saturday and Sunday time frame and into next week if this develops into some kind of tropical or subtropical system, Brennan said.
Right now, he said the preparedness message is key. Hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.
“Most of the model’s guidance say this will stay north of the Bahamas and off the southeastern U.S. coast until next week,” he said. But this early out, “you can’t be certain where it is going to go and form.”
Right now, he added, “this is nothing to be overly alarmed about but a reminder that hurricane season is coming and South Florida is always vulnerable.”
There are no tropical cyclones on the hurricane center maps currently and none are expected for the next two days.
South Florida forecast
But the unsettled weather coincides with a batch of wet and windy weather that is expected in South Florida by Thursday, according to the National Weather Service in Miami.
Gusty winds and storms are expected in South Florida, especially on Friday when the chance of rain is 80%, according to the Weather Service. But the percentages are pretty high starting with Wednesday’s 40% chance and then running 50% to 60% into Saturday.
The Weather Channel puts the rain chances even higher for South Florida, topping out at 90% on Friday and 80% on Thursday, with winds in the forecast.
That said, if the system develops it is expected to move away from the United States’ coast and the Bahamas, said WPLG meteorologist Brandon Orr.
Center of tropical system
According to AccuWeather, there are “warmer-than-average waters working for it south of Bermuda,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski.
“There is some indication that the broad area of showers and thunderstorms in this zone from Friday to Sunday could develop some spin and perhaps give birth to the first depression or even named tropical feature of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season.”
If so, it would be named Arthur.
This story was originally published May 12, 2020 at 10:53 AM.
