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Florida could see Tropical Depression Dorian form this weekend but only impact is rain

Is Dorian on the way? Hurricane Center keeping close eye on tropical disturbance

A tropical disturbance near the Bahamas has a 30 percent chance of forming by August 27, according to the National Hurricane Center. If the tropical system does develop, it'll be named Dorian — and could form off the U.S. East Coast.
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A tropical disturbance near the Bahamas has a 30 percent chance of forming by August 27, according to the National Hurricane Center. If the tropical system does develop, it'll be named Dorian — and could form off the U.S. East Coast.

After a quiet start to the hurricane season, this weekend could see the formation of not one but two tropical depressions in the Atlantic.

The first named storm would be Dorian.

Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center said the likely candidate could be the tropical wave hovering just east of the Florida Keys Friday afternoon. As of the 2 p.m. update, forecasters predict the disturbance has a 70 percent chance of upgrading over the weekend and a 90 percent chance of upgrading in the next five days. That forecast didn’t change Friday night.

Could-be Dorian is expected to head northwest Friday night before moving west and away from Florida on Saturday, when forecasters believe the disturbance will become a tropical depression.



No matter which way the disturbance goes, South Florida is in for some rain and flooding this weekend, according to the National Weather Service. Most of the flooding and rain is expected on the Gulf coast and the interior in the afternoons and the East coast in the evenings. Miami is in for around two inches of rain, meteorologists predict.

The hurricane center said an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft was scheduled to investigate the system on Saturday if necessary.

Next up, potentially: Erin. There’s a tropical wave over by the Windward Islands that forecasters have their eye on, and it’s strengthening.

Friday morning forecasters said the storm had a 20 percent chance of upgrading to a depression in the next couple days. By Friday afternoon that chance had leapt to 40 percent. As of the 8 p.m. update, forecasters gave it a 60 percent chance. The chance of upgrading through the next five days increased to 70 percent from 50 percent.

The tropical wave is headed west around 15 miles per hour, and forecasters said “a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week.”

And then there’s Tropical Depression Chantal, which formed way out in the northeast Atlantic but is not expected to be a threat to land.

Tropical Storm Chantal in the North Atlantic weakened into a tropical depression as it moved away from North America.

Miami Herald staff writer Martin Vassolo contributed to this report.

Miami Herald Real Time/Breaking News reporter Howard Cohen, a 2017 Media Excellence Awards winner, has covered pop music, theater, health and fitness, obituaries, municipal government and general assignment. He started his career in the Features department at the Miami Herald in 1991.
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