How is Biden doing in Miami-Dade County? New poll has good and bad news
As President Joe Biden’s approval numbers fail to stabilize across the country, his popularity in Miami-Dade, a county crucial to Florida Democrats as they head into the 2022 midterms, is above the national average, according to a new poll released Monday.
But Biden’s support among those surveyed by Bendixen & Amandi International this month is practically the only good news for Democrats in a county where they have historically won with double-digit margins. The bad news for Florida Democrats is that Biden has been unable to gain ground against former President Donald Trump, leading in the poll by seven points — the same margin of victory he had in the county in 2020.
It’s a similar story when Biden is matched up against Gov. Ron DeSantis, a vocal critic of the president and potential 2024 presidential contender. The poll shows that, if the election were held today, voters would choose Biden over DeSantis by just 6 percentage points in Miami-Dade.
Among the 800 people polled from March 3 to March 8, 55% said they have a very or somewhat favorable view of Biden, compared to 44% who say they have a very or somewhat unfavorable view of him throughout Miami-Dade. Among independents, 51% said they see Biden favorably, and 45% say they have an unfavorable view of him.
The poll was conducted by phone with registered voters throughout Miami-Dade County in both English and Spanish, and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.4 percentage points. Thirty-nine percent of those polled are registered Democrats, 37% are Republicans and 24% are independent or other.
The results also show Biden is unpopular among Hispanics when compared to the rest of the county: 51% said they have an unfavorable view of him, while white and Black voters have 56% and 75% favorable views of him, respectively. But when voters are split into Cuban and non-Cuban, the results show Biden is seen favorably by non-Cuban Hispanic voters, with 58% saying they have a favorable view of him. About 59% of Cubans say they have an unfavorable view of Biden.
“I think the poll confirms what we’ve seen,” said Fernand Amandi, a Miami-based Democratic pollster and a partner at the firm. “There’s a cleavage in the Hispanic vote between Cuban and non-Cuban Hispanics ... For Democrats to enjoy the type of margins that they’ve historically been accustomed to in Miami-Dade, they need to go back to basics.”
Amandi added that there’s still a segment of the Cuban vote that is open to supporting Democrats. The poll shows about 37% of Cubans said they have a favorable view of the president.
Along with non-Cuban Hispanics, independents are also stronger supporters of Biden when voters are given the choice between Biden and Trump or Biden and DeSantis.
“As independents grow in size and number in Miami-Dade County, in Miami and across Florida, that cohort may hold the key to determining which party wins or loses,” said Amandi.
Meanwhile, the poll has better news for Republicans in Miami-Dade and DeSantis, who is supported by 50% of those polled, and is seen favorably by 78% of Republicans, 46% of independents and 27% of Democrats. That data point, including that 48% of voters in Miami-Dade said DeSantis deserves four more years in his job, is just a sample of the uphill work for Democrats running in statewide races this year. (The pollsters did not ask about any of the primary candidates running against DeSantis for governor.)
“DeSantis is significantly over-performing his support in Miami-Dade which last time was almost enough to help elect [DeSantis’ 2018 opponent Andrew] Gillum,” Amandi said. “These numbers should serve as the ultimate wake-up call for Democrats looking to knock off DeSantis or Marco Rubio in 2022, because Gillum carried Miami-Dade County by 21 points in 2018. And yet, here, 48% of Miami-Dade voters say DeSantis deserves to be reelected.”
Despite DeSantis’ popularity, however, his support is not enough to overtake Trump in a hypothetical primary in Miami-Dade. 55% of Republicans in Miami-Dade support Trump, over 32% who say they would support DeSantis. Among Hispanic voters, 62% of Cubans say they would vote for Trump, while 32% say they would vote for DeSantis. It’s a similar figure among Republican non-Cuban Hispanics, 63% of whom say they would vote for Trump, while 22% say they would vote for DeSantis.
This story was originally published March 14, 2022 at 7:00 AM.
