Kalshi is touting Byron Donalds’ lead, and funding his campaign
A platform that lets users wager on elections touted Byron Donalds’ chances of winning Florida’s gubernatorial race at a “NEW ALL-TIME HIGH” Monday, but what they didn’t say is that they’re also helping fund his campaign.
The prediction market Kalshi, which lets people place money on the outcomes of various events including sports games and election outcomes, gave $25,000 to the Donalds campaign’s political committee last year.
The marketplace’s rankings can influence public perception of political candidates. But the platform’s political motivations aren’t always clear to voters.
“People could be betting on the very political race that they themselves have made a huge wager on, in terms of their own investment,” said Michael Beckel, the research director at the bipartisan think tank Issue One, which aims to reduce the influence of money in politics. “That’s not information that most betters on prediction markets like Kalshi may even have access to or know about.”
Donalds wrote “wow” on his personal X account in a repost of Kalshi’s social media announcement that “Byron Donalds has a 95% chance to defeat James Fishback and Jay Collins in the Florida Republican Governor primary.”
His campaign said it didn’t see a problem with Kalshi promoting his lead on their platform, while also being a campaign donor.
“The post was simply stating reality — that Byron Donalds is dominating the primary field on his way to winning the general election in November,” said Gates McGavick, the Donalds campaign’s communications director.
Kalshi regularly shares posts about other candidates’ standings in Florida’s elections too, a Kalshi spokesperson Dani Lever noted in response to questions from the Miami Herald about the company’s support for Donalds.
“We post about all candidates when their odds change, which is why we also posted about Fishback and Collins multiple times throughout this race,” Lever said.
But the campaign spending backing Donalds and the latest post about his “new all-time high” comes at a time that prediction markets are looking for “friends in high places,” Beckel said.
There’s an ongoing debate over whether prediction markets should be regulated as gambling platforms under state laws, or as financial platforms under federal law.
Donald Trump’s administration is fighting to maintain the latter interpretation, and has been suing states that try to regulate prediction markets as gambling platforms.
The question of state-level regulation is particularly pertinent in Florida, where only the Seminole Tribe can operate sports betting markets because of the state’s exclusive gambling agreement with the tribe.
As long as Kalshi’s markets are treated as financial exchanges under federal law, they can operate outside the scope of Florida’s gambling laws and let people wager funds on the outcomes of events — including on sports games.
“This moment really represents a regulatory gap,” Beckel said. “Companies like Kalshi … are trying to make sure that they have supportive people in their corner at this time when there is so much decision-making happening about how these companies could be regulated.”
Donalds isn’t the only potential voice on how Kalshi is regulated in Florida who is receiving campaign funds from the company.
Attorney General James Uthmeier’s political committee received a $50,000 donation last year and his campaign received a $3,000 contribution last month, according to state campaign finance reports.
The company has also donated $25,000 apiece to the state’s Republican House and Senate campaign committees, $25,000 to a political committee run by state House Speaker Danny Perez and $5,000 to a political committee run by future state House Speaker Mike Redondo over the past year, finance reports show.
Kalshi is making investments in elections across the country, and for both political parties, leading into the 2026 elections.
The platform has also donated about $40,000 to California Democratic gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra, who is leading in Kalshi’s prediction market on that race.
Herald/Times Tallahassee Bureau correspondent Garrett Shanley contributed to this report.
This story was originally published June 15, 2026 at 4:07 PM.
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