Casey DeSantis support nears Donalds, until voters hear Trump endorsement, poll shows
Support for Casey DeSantis as Florida’s next governor comes close to Congressman Byron Donalds’ backing among likely Republican primary voters, according to a new University of North Florida poll released Tuesday, until voters learn that Donalds was endorsed by Donald Trump.
Florida’s first lady has not announced a run for governor. But in a hypothetical matchup among likely Republican voters, 28% said they would vote for Donalds in the August GOP primary and 24% said they would vote for Casey DeSantis were she to run, UNF’s Public Opinion Research Lab found.
Trailing behind both of them were debate league founder and former hedge fund staffer James Fishback with 4% of respondents supporting his campaign, Lt. Gov. Jay Collins with 3% and former Speaker of the House Paul Renner with 1%.
Once voters were told that Trump has endorsed Donalds, his support among respondents grew to 47% and Casey DeSantis’ fell to 12%.
“Given Trump’s notoriety and high popularity among Republicans, an endorsement from him is likely to decide the race, especially when Donalds has the campaign funds to heavily advertise this advantage to voters,” said Dr. Sean Freeder, the UNF polling lab director and professor of political science. Donalds raised more than $45 million last year.
That finding mirrors a poll released last month by longtime pollster Tony Fabrizio on behalf of the Donalds campaign showing Donalds led Casey DeSantis 68% to 10% among Republican primary voters aware of President Donald Trump’s endorsement.
Republican pollster Ryan Tyson said he’s seen the same trends, and that the hypothetical match-up is not the reality of Florida’s Republican primary landscape.
“That is not that the race. There is no Casey DeSantis versus Byron Donalds. You’re getting a guy who’s starting to grow his name ID against someone with 8 years of statewide name ID,” Tyson said.
“There are not enough Florida primary voters that even know about this endorsement yet and every poll that I have seen in the state of Florida for over a year show that when you educate voters about Trump’s endorsement, it ends up in a lopsided ballot,” he added.
About 36% of respondents to the UNF poll said they were undecided. That number jumped to more than half of likely voters when DeSantis was removed from the list.
Casey DeSantis, a former newscaster, has not indicated she’s planning to jump in the race. But she has emerged with a public rebrand this year, fueling speculation about her political future. She recently launched her Health Florida First initiative focused on food testing, after her last platform, Hope Florida, became embroiled in controversy.
Criminal investigators are looking into millions of dollars steered by the DeSantis administration from a state Medicaid settlement through a Hope Florida charity into a political committee fighting a recreational marijuana referendum. Casey DeSantis was never accused of wrongdoing, but she receded from the public spotlight after the state investigation began.
When asked if she was running for governor in Miami a year ago, Casey DeSantis told reporters, “To quote the late, great Yogi Berra: when you come to a fork in the road, take it.” She never stood up a campaign, or began fundraising. She made just seven public appearances from April through December, according to press releases.
There are no signs she is approaching donors, a prerequisite for any statewide run. But she’s held multiple press conferences and made TV appearances for her Healthy Florida First so far this year. Gov. Ron DeSantis has withheld his endorsement from close allies like Renner, whose run he called “ill-advised,” and his own lieutenant governor — fueling speculation he could be leaving the door open to back his wife.
Among the 24% of UNF poll respondents who said they’d vote for Casey DeSantis, 12% said they would back Donalds if she’s not on the ballot and 8% said they’d vote for Fishback. Most said they were unsure.
Herald/Times Tallahassee Bureau staff writer Alexandra Glorioso contributed to this report.
This story was originally published February 24, 2026 at 5:00 AM.
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