In Florida, Donald Trump cruises to easy victory over Kamala Harris

Donald Trump easily won the presidential election in Florida on Tuesday, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris by the largest margin of any presidential candidate in the Sunshine State in decades and lending credence to what Republicans – and some Democrats – have argued for months or longer: that Florida is Trump country.

Trump was winning the state by over 1.4 million votes by 9:30 pm, according to the state Division of Elections. The Associated Press reported a margin of victory of more than 13 percentage points. No presidential candidate has won the state with such a large advantage in 36 years, when former president George H.W. beat Democrat Michael Dukakis by nearly one million votes, or over 20 points.

Though some Democrats argue Florida could flip back to blue eventually, Republicans view Trump’s comfortable victory as further confirmation that Florida is no longer a swing state. Early voting numbers in Florida signaled the possibility of a strong showing for Trump in the state.

Experts, officials and analysts say that the shift towards the right among Hispanics in Florida largely contributed to the GOP’s significant advantage in the state, Trump’s official residence. For the first time since running in 2016, Trump won mostly-Hispanic Miami-Dade, once a reliably Democratic county. Some exit polls on Tuesday showed Trump winning the majority of Latinos in Florida.

Tuesday’s results show the ground that Democrats have lost in Florida, which former president Barack Obama won in 2008 and 2012. Many viewed Obama’s popularity, which received strong support from even the historically conservative Cuban community and came at a time when Democrats had more registered voters in Florida, as a bellwether for Democrats’ ability to gain significant ground in the state. But in recent years, amid an influx of conservative-leaning new residents and highly strategic organizing, Republicans have solidified their base and gained a one million plus advantage of registered voters over Democrats statewide.

Following victory in the state, the Trump campaign said in a statement that “after four years of the disastrous Harris-Biden administration, Floridians are eager to return to commonsense policies that put their freedom, their families, and America first.”

Trump has largely run his campaign on a plan to deport millions of undocumented migrants, while also promising to bring down inflation and the high cost of living. In South Florida, the GOP has conflated the Democratic Party at a local and national level with socialism for years, making many who fled left-wing, Latin American governments hesitant to vote blue.

Trump won Miami-Dade County handily, winning more than 55 percent of the vote, according to a Miami Herald analysis. It’s a stark departure from Democrat’s comfortable victory 2016, when Hillary Clinton won with 63% of voters here. The GOP’s closed in on that advantage in 2020, when President Joe Biden won 53% of the county.

Trump rode support among Miami-Dade’s Hispanic voters to victory, winning nearly two-thirds of the vote in majority-Hispanic precincts. In the heavily Hispanic county, these precincts accounted for nearly 70% of all the ballots cast in the election.

That translated to a 75% share of the vote for Trump in Hialeah and more than 60% of the vote for Trump in Doral, both majority Hispanic cities.

Harris, meanwhile, won nearly 80% of the vote in Dade’s majority Black precincts, and won more than 75% of the vote in Miami Gardens, which is heavily Black.

Trump held a narrow lead among voters in majority white precincts. Harris had a 10 point edge in the remaining precincts.

The city of Miami was nearly evenly split between Harris and Trump.

Cesar Grajales, a Republican political analyst who works for the conservative Libre Initiative, told the Miami Herald that many South Florida immigrants who fled political and social instability value the security that they cannot find in their home countries. He emphasized that the current situation at the border and the arrival of criminals gangs to the U.S. is making many Latinos support his bid for the presidency.

“People don’t want to live that situation again, and they see in Trump a strong character, and feel that with him they will have that security with him,” he said, adding that many Latinos are also frustrated with the high cost of living.

Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, a Republican whose district covers from Downtown Miami to Cutler Bay, said that the Miami-Dade flip was occurring because many voters want tougher measures on immigration and a more affordable cost of living. She also said that Latinos rejected socialism.

“People are not stupid and if they have the opportunity to hold you accountable, they will, and that is what they are doing right now,” she told the Miami Herald.

Analysts also say that the Republicans gains could also be related to an influx of new residents from the Midwest and elsewhere to the state. Gov. Ron DeSantis and other top GOP officials have publicly positioned Florida as a beacon of Republican values and conservative policy. Florida’s population grew over 360,000 new residents last year, according U.S. Census Bureau data.

Jose Parra, a Democratic strategist and former aide to the late-Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, said that Republicans’ voter registration advantage, along with the new influx of residents, had been reflected in Tuesday night’s results. But he noted that the fact that over half of voters supported the proposed abortion and marijuana constitutional amendments showed that Democrats had potential to win the state back at some point.

“But it’s going to take several cycles and the investment and organization,” Parra said.

Among Floridians backing Trump is Abel Carvajal, a 21-year-old law student. Carvajal, who grew up in Hialeah with his Cuban-born parents, told the Herald that it was his first time voting in a presidential election.

He’s supporting Trump because he disagrees with Biden’s foreign policy towards Cuba and Venezuela, as well as the high level of inflation that have rocked the U.S. in the early years of the Biden adminstration. He said he would like to see the former president make housing, goods, and gas cheaper and improve public safety and border security.

“We need some change, and the change agent isn’t going to be the person who has been vice president for the last four years,” Carvajal said.

Grajales, the Republican analyst, said that “Florida was giving a vote of confidence to President Trump” on Tuesday.

“If he returns to the White House, the ball is in his court, and he needs to do good by his voters who have faith in him.”

This story was originally published November 5, 2024 at 8:17 PM.