Military absentee ballots may be critical to 2020 election: 1 in 5 went to Florida
The number of service members voting by absentee ballot is surging in 2020, and could become a critical factor in Florida, where one out of every five military absentee ballots were cast in the 2016 presidential election, according to data analyzed by McClatchy.
Military voting advocacy groups are worried, however, that the combined pressures of the pandemic and strain on the U.S. postal system will delay those votes. They are raising awareness that in many key battleground states, later deadlines for military absentee ballots means those votes must still be included, even if they arrive after Election Day.
“We’ve seen in the past, obviously Florida is the key example, that it can come down to a single state and not very many votes,” said Jack Noland, a researcher for Count Every Hero, a nonpartisan military voting advocacy group. “It is not out of the realm of possibility, at all, that some of these statewide or down-ballot races could be determined by overseas and military voters.”
Based on data collected by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission, more than 252,000 of the military’s 1.3 million active duty forces voted through an absentee ballot in 2016.
Just over 50,000 of those ballots were cast in Florida, almost 33,000 in Washington state and 20,000 in Texas. Those states each have military bases where tens of thousands of service members are assigned and also have no income tax, which provides an incentive for military personnel to retain their permanent address there even as they deploy elsewhere.
The concentration of absentee military voters in Florida and other battleground states “really can impact a close election in one state, and give them outside power that when distributed they wouldn’t normally have,” said Susan Dzieduszycka-Suinat, president of the nonpartisan U.S. Vote Foundation and Overseas Vote.
“Because there’s been so much interaction between the president and troops, and how they feel about each other, it could be a direct feedback line and really affect the election in states that have significant numbers of electoral votes,” Dzieduszycka-Suinat said.
The U.S. Postal Service reports that as of Oct. 22, almost 48,000 absentee military ballots have been returned, compared to 33,000 on the same date in 2016. The Postal Service is able to count the returns through the Label 11-DOD tracking stickers that identify the letter as a military ballot.
Individual states are also reporting surges in military ballot requests, although not all states, such as Florida and Texas, provide real-time statewide tracking of those ballots.
North Carolina, for example, reported that as of Oct. 13, more than 10,700 military personnel had requested an absentee ballot this year, compared with a total of about 6,300 military personnel who voted by absentee ballot in 2016. South Carolina has seen a similar uptick, with almost 5,200 ballots requested by military personnel this year compared with a total 3,300 military absentee votes cast in 2016.
Michigan, another battleground state, is reporting that 4,160 military absentee ballots had been requested as of Oct. 22, lower than the total 4,786 military absentee ballots cast in 2016 — but requests are still coming in. “We expect these numbers will increase significantly before Election Day,” said Tracy Wimmer, a spokeswoman for the Michigan Secretary of State.
The potential impact of the military absentee vote is also raising echoes of the 2000 disputed presidential election between Republican George W. Bush and Democrat Al Gore in which the Florida recount went to the U.S. Supreme Court.
The 2000 election was decided by 537 Florida votes in a contested ballot recount that went on for weeks.
One of the questions in that recount involved whether or not to include hundreds of military absentee ballots that had arrived after Election Day, some without postmarks.
“Of course military ballots could be decisive in this [2020] election. Especially if the vote is close,” said attorney David Aufhauser, who led a legal team that fought to get military ballots counted for the Bush presidential campaign in Florida in 2000.
Retired Navy Capt. Gabe Soltero was serving aboard the aircraft carrier USS George Washington as an SH-60 Sea Hawk helicopter pilot during the 2000 election. As the warship patrolled near the Balkan Peninsula, Soltero, a Florida-registered voter, filled in his absentee ballot and sent it back.
To this day, Soltero doesn’t know if his vote was ever counted in that election.
“We were working seven days a week, like we do when we are overseas. But I sat down, I took my ballot, and I voted,” Soltero said in a phone interview. “I would like to think my vote was counted, but I never found out. Was it left aside like many other hanging chads? I don’t know. But that’s always bothered me.”
Soltero is now volunteering for Count Every Hero.
“Reform was undertaken because of the 2000 debacle,” Aufhauser said in an interview with McClatchy. “And the reform was all oriented to trying to improve the chances of soldiers and sailors having their vote counted.”
In 2009, Congress strengthened protections for military voters, including requiring states to distribute absentee ballots to service members no fewer than 45 days before the election.
It also required states to provide at least one electronic option for service members to vote and a way for service members to be able to verify that their absentee ballot was received.
As of June 2020, the most recent data reported by the Defense Manpower Data Center, there were almost 172,000 active duty forces and more than 19,000 reservists or members of the National Guard deployed overseas.
The overseas number does not include the thousands of forces serving in Syria, Afghanistan or Iraq. The Pentagon stopped providing that data to the public in late 2017, citing operational security.
Service members can vote absentee not only if they are overseas, but also if they are assigned to a military base in the United States that is away from their home station. In 28 states and the District of Columbia, those ballots do not have to arrive by Nov. 3.
But the rules on postmarks and deadlines are different for each state.
For example, South Carolina allows military ballots to arrive through Nov. 5. Washington state has the most generous grace period, military ballots can arrive through Nov. 23 and still be counted.
Several of the states that are considered critical for an Electoral College win also have sizable absentee military voting populations.
For example in Pennsylvania, almost 8,400 service members voted by mail in 2016 and the state allows military ballots to arrive through Nov. 10. Florida will accept military ballots through Nov. 13.
However, some service members are still reporting issues with receiving a ballot.
Army Col. Chris Paone commands the 10th Support Group at Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, Japan. He is registered to vote in Florida, and has not yet received his ballot, which was to arrive electronically by email.
“We’ve been checking spam and junk filters everyday since the ballots were released (45 days out from the election) and he hasn’t received anything,” his spouse, Megan Paone, said in an email to McClatchy. “He filled out a FWAB (a Federal Write-in Absentee Ballot, an emergency backup ballot) and sent it in just in case his actual ballot didn’t come.”
The FWAB allows a voter to participate in the federal races, but does not always include statewide or local races or initiatives, depending on each state’s policies, according to the Federal Voting Assistance Program.
The military absentee ballot data does not include the tens of thousands of military spouses living away from their permanent address. Like service members, they are also eligible to request an absentee ballot.
“This year in particular I am really concerned there are going to be voters who slip through the cracks,” said Sarah Streyder, who founded the Military Vote Coalition and is focused on helping service members and their spouses vote.
“You can control when you postmark a ballot, but can’t control when it’s going to get delivered,” Streyder said.
Other service members decided to leave nothing to chance this election.
“Due to my military obligations, I’ve always voted absentee in the past, and I’ve never had a concern if my vote would count until now,” said Air Force reservist Maj. Charlynda Scales, who votes in Dayton, Ohio.
This year, Scales voted early in person.
This story was originally published October 28, 2020 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Military absentee ballots may be critical to 2020 election: 1 in 5 went to Florida."
