DeSantis’ dilemma: to endorse or not endorse in the race to replace him as governor?

Against conventional wisdom and at his own political peril, Gov. Ron DeSantis is looking for a candidate to back in the next Florida governor’s race.

A campaign by his wife, once seen as an inevitability, appears less likely in the wake of a scandal involving a charity created by her husband’s administration to support her signature program. But the governor has a new potential successor to get behind after naming Sen. Jay Collins his lieutenant governor this month.

Collins, who did not respond to a request for comment, hasn’t committed to a gubernatorial bid but also hasn’t ruled it out. He is a military veteran who lost his leg in combat—a great-on-paper candidate. But a Collins endorsement isn’t a done deal, according to interviews with 11 DeSantis confidantes and Republican insiders. Backing Collins would mean DeSantis is hanging his legacy on what is by definition a longshot: Collins would have to become the first lieutenant governor in recent memory to go on and win the governor’s seat.

And there’s simply too much riding on the decision.

DeSantis, in his second and final term, will be out of office soon and cannot run again. The person who takes DeSantis’ place will decide the fate of his legacy policies, including the Hope Florida program, which is related to the charity under scrutiny and is intended to get Floridians off government aid largely by diverting low-income residents to churches.

The safe choice for DeSantis would be to back U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, a near ideological twin who used to be close to the governor, and who has President Donald Trump’s endorsement. If he picks that path, DeSantis could potentially land a job in Trump’s administration after he leaves Tallahassee, laying the groundwork for a future presidential bid after Trump is out of power.

But DeSantis is still smarting after Donalds backed Trump over him in the last Republican presidential primary. He is looking to get behind a different candidate even if it means reigniting a fight with Trump, the leader of his party, who handily defeated DeSantis in the 2024 Republican presidential primary campaign.

“This is about a primal instinct. DeSantis feels as though he deserves a successor who is an acolyte,” Matt Gaetz, a former Republican Congressman and conservative news anchor, told the Herald/Times. “No person leaving any governorship doesn’t want that. Desantis believes he deserves one.”

The riskier path has a major upside: if a DeSantis-backed candidate prevails, the governor would prove his brand as an effective operator still means something—much like he did when he defeated the recreational marijuana and abortion-rights ballot initiatives last November.

If DeSantis fails, not only does he risk alienating himself again from the Make America Great Again Republican Party, which roundly rejected him in the 2024 presidential race, he’ll also be unlikely to be nominated for a Trump administration position.

DeSantis’ office did not respond to a request for comment.

“It’s clear the president’s endorsed Byron, and everyone in Trump world wants Byron,” a Republican consultant said.

“Your wife is one thing,” the consultant said, indicating Trump may forgive a Casey DeSantis endorsement, and a Casey DeSantis endorsement alone.

COLLINS’ QUICK RISE

Collins owes his political and professional success in large part to DeSantis. In 2019, he was such a political unknown that a CBS Miami story referred to him as a “Tampa man on a mission” as he biked and ran across the country to promote his disaster response nonprofit, Operation BBQ Relief.

After Collins became senator, Operation BBQ received $13.4 million from the state in payments from 2022 to January of this year. DeSantis’ office steered at least some of the money to the charity through his expansive emergency fund, records show. There were no state payments in the two years before Collins was elected, which is as far back as the online state payments system goes.

In 2020, Collins made a salary of $181,667 as chief program officer of Operation BBQ Relief, according to tax filings. Last year, he made $221,271, with over $10,000 in other compensation. Collins stepped down from the organization this month after getting promoted by DeSantis. As Lt. Governor, he will make $135,000 a year.

Required financial disclosure forms show that Collins says his wealth has marginally increased over his time in the Senate: from $1.8 million to $1.9 million.

In the Legislature, Collins remained loyal to DeSantis in recent months while many of his colleagues bucked the governor. In May, the Herald/Times reported state prosecutors were looking into a $10 million transfer from a Medicaid settlement to the charity, Hope Florida Foundation, spearheaded by Casey DeSantis. The money went through the charity to two nonprofits that then gave $8.5 million to a political committee run by the governor’s then-chief of staff that was intent on defeating the recreational marijuana amendment. The charity is supposed to support the Hope Florida program.

While legislative leaders raised concerns over the transactions, Collins defended them.

“Those went to nonprofits under the missions of Hope Florida,” Collins told the podcaster Jenna Ellis in an interview posted on May 27. “These weren’t just given willy-nilly.”

Collins said he referred disaster victims to Hope Florida to help with problems unrelated to their next hot meal, and “Hope Florida always stepped up.” He said he was a “vocal advocate” for the program given how he “grew up on government welfare.”

In early August, Collins again praised the program to a group of Republicans in Orlando. “I love the program. And I’m a firm believer in it,” Collins said.

COLLINS’ HIGHER PROFILE

Last week, Collins flew without the governor to California to escort an immigrant accused of killing three people in a Florida car crash back to the state.

“I am not your run-of-the-mill lieutenant governor,” Collins said in California. “I don’t identify as a politician. I identify as a God-fearing, gun-loving, freedom-defending, one-legged retired Green Beret.”

It’s a story that could break through to voters, as one Republican operative put it.

“Any American should love Jay Collins’ story. He has an amazing story,” the operative said.

They didn’t know if Collins could beat Donalds, saying it was too early to tell. It will all depend on whether Collins can get his name recognition up and raise enough money to run ads across Florida, which is expensive. To his benefit, Collins is from Tampa, the third largest media market in a state.

Collins signed paperwork to open a new political committee the day before DeSantis picked him for lieutenant governor. As of Tuesday, the committee had yet to report raising any money.

Donalds has raised $21.3 million so far, with his largest donations coming from Jeff Yass ($5 million), Richard Uihlein ($2 million) and Thomas Peterffy ($1 million), state campaign finance records show.

The operative argues there’s still a class of mega donors who are waiting to be won over.

“The one thing I know for certain about Ron DeSantis, is that he really cares about the state and the future of the state,” the operative said. “I think he’ll make a calculation on the political elements that he thinks best move the state forward. That I’m 1,000% certain of.”

They added: “Maybe Byron proves he has a vision that DeSantis will like. He hasn’t done it yet.”

Herald/Times staff writer Lawrence Mower and Tampa Bay Times reporters Justin Garcia and Kirby Wilson contributed to this report.

This story was originally published August 27, 2025 at 5:30 AM.