Kamala Harris has some momentum in Florida. Does that mean the state is in play?

Florida Democrats are riding high after what they say is a recent burst of momentum for Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign in the Sunshine State, raising questions about whether Florida is on track to regain its longtime status as a electoral battleground.

But Republicans and even some Democrats remain skeptical about Harris’ chances of beating Donald Trump in Florida in November, citing a years-long shift in the state’s political makeup and its growing ranks of Republican voters. While state Democratic leaders argue that the GOP’s dominance has been greatly exaggerated, many veterans of Florida politics say that Democrats still have a lot of work to do to put Florida back in play.

“I won’t believe Florida is in play until Democrats actually win a statewide campaign in Florida,” said Fernand Amandi, a Democratic pollster who worked on former President Barack Obama’s 2012 campaign in the state. “We’ve seen for years now, Democrats come very close in Florida and still end up falling short and, in the process, expend millions of dollars trying to achieve what seems to be an impossible goal.”

Top Florida Democratic officials say their optimism is warranted. One survey from USA Today and Suffolk University released this week showed Harris trailing the former president by 5 percentage points – a smaller margin than many previous polls, and one that fell within the survey’s margin of error. Another poll from Florida Atlantic University’s Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab showed Trump leading Harris by just 3 percentage points.

Florida Democratic officials and Harris’ campaign have also touted a surge in new volunteers that have signed up to help the vice president’s White House bid since she replaced President Joe Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket. Over the past month, almost 22,000 Floridians have volunteered, according to data reviewed by the Herald.

Top Florida Democrats told the Miami Herald that they plan to lobby donors and national Democratic leaders at the party’s national convention in Chicago next week to take a second look at Florida, arguing that a recent burst of momentum for Harris’ candidacy has opened up a path to victory in the state.

“My message is going to be clear when it comes to Florida: that people here are yearning to get involved, but we have to make sure that Democrats are giving them the tools they need and putting in the resources to succeed,” said state Sen. Shevrin Jones, the chairman of the Miami-Dade Democratic Party.

Amandi said that it’s not impossible for Harris to carry Florida in November, but argued that the campaign’s money would be better spent in states like Georgia and North Carolina, where polls show a much tighter contest between Harris and Trump.

“All I’m saying is the Harris campaign shouldn’t deviate a single dollar or a single hour of candidate time from the battlegrounds to try to win Florida,” Amandi said.

Florida is a tempting target for Democrats. A victory in the state in November would virtually guarantee Harris the White House, given how heavily Republicans rely on Florida for votes. Former President Barack Obama also carried the state twice – first in 2008 and again in 2012 – and Democrats have pined for years to replicate that success.

But Democrats are also contending with a tougher political playing field in Florida now than they were the last time Obama was on the ballot. The latest numbers posted by the Florida Division of Elections show that Republicans have roughly 1 million more active registered voters in the state than Democrats.

Democrats argue that the numbers are misleading, because they don’t include hundreds of thousands of inactive Democratic voters, who are still eligible to cast a ballot in November. If inactive voters are included in the registration totals, however, Republicans still have a roughly 700,000-person advantage over Democrats.

Florida state Rep. Alex Rizo, who chairs the Miami-Dade Republican Party, acknowledged that Harris has had a “honeymoon” period since emerging as the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, but said that the GOP’s voter registration advantage alone makes Florida a longshot for Democrats.

“Obviously there’s excitement on the Democratic side when it comes to a new candidate. I think we’ve seen that,” Rizo said. “That honeymoon is there, but it’s going to end very soon and I don’t think it’s going to go very far in Florida. The Republican Party just got to a million more voters than the Democratic Party. That’s never happened in the history of Florida.”

Of course, Harris doesn’t necessarily need to carry Florida to win the White House in November. Biden lost the Sunshine State to Trump in 2020 but ultimately emerged victorious after sweeping a handful of key swing states, including Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia.

Harris appears to be taking a similar approach to the 2024 race. Her campaign is spending tens of millions of dollars to advertise in seven battleground states, but has yet to take out a major TV or radio ad buy in Florida.

Trump’s campaign also hasn’t spent heavily in Florida this year, believing that the former president is already in a solid position to win the state and its 30 electoral votes. He’s put on occasional campaign rallies in his adopted home state, including one in Doral last month, and has held court at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, but his campaign and affiliated groups have poured more resources into battlegrounds, like Pennsylvania and Georgia.

Amandi, the Democratic pollster, said that winning the presidential race in Florida shouldn’t be the end goal for Democrats this year. Rather, he urged the party to focus on getting Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, across the finish line in November.

“The only thing that matters in this election if you wanna see Kamala Harris and Tim Walz elected, it’s not winning Florida. It’s making sure they get 270 electoral votes. Period,” Amandi said. “If that happens to include Florida, fantastic. But if it doesn’t, it’s still a reason for tremendous celebration. After that Democrats can work on making Florida competitive again in 2026.”

This story was originally published August 16, 2024 at 3:41 PM.