RNC advisers shoot down Suarez’s claim he qualified for the GOP debate in Milwaukee
Miami Mayor Francis Suarez said Friday that he had qualified for the first Republican presidential debate next week in Milwaukee, claiming to have met the polling and donor benchmarks that would allow him to pitch his long-shot candidacy to a national audience on Fox News.
But within minutes of his announcement, two senior advisers with the Republican National Committee — which determines who will participate in Wednesday’s debate — refuted his claim, telling the Miami Herald that Suarez had, in fact, not yet met the criteria to participate in the first prime-time event of the 2024 GOP presidential primary.
Suarez’s campaign did not respond to the Herald’s multiple requests for comment. During a Friday night appearance on CNN, the mayor acknowledged he did not have the RNC’s stamp of approval to participate in the debate, and he said the RNC was reviewing polling information the campaign submitted to qualify.
“They have not yet given me sort of that, that final certification,” Suarez told host Kaitlan Collins. “It’s sort of a back and forth, like I said.”
Republican candidates have until Monday to provide the RNC with proof that they meet its criteria, so Suarez — who has suggested he will end his candidacy if he doesn’t make the debate — still has time to qualify for the event. But the episode called into question the mayor’s tactics to publicly claim a spot on the stage.
The Associated Press, which first reported Suarez’s claims with an exclusive interview Friday, later reported that the Suarez campaign had presented a reporter with incomplete information to support his assertion that he had made the debate.
According to the outlet, the campaign provided an email from an RNC official confirming that Suarez had been allotted 135 reserved seats in Milwaukee. The email also stated that the tickets would be canceled if Suarez did not meet the debate requirements, but that portion was not included in the information sent to the Associated Press, according to its report.
Republican candidates need at least 40,000 unique donors from more than 20 different states or territories to qualify for the debate. They must also reach at least 1% support in three national polls, or in two national polls plus two separate polls from states with early primaries or caucuses. The RNC only considers certain polls that meet its criteria, requiring, for instance, that polls query at least 800 voters and ruling out surveys affiliated with a campaign or candidate
The RNC has not put out an official statement regarding Suarez’s claims or which criteria the Miami candidate has failed to meet. But it appears that Suarez has so far fallen short on the polling requirement, according to an analysis by Politico.
Suarez’s debate announcement came several days after an independent super PAC supporting his presidential bid, SOS America, began claiming that Suarez had qualified for the debate.
The PAC highlighted eight polls to support its claim, but a Herald review suggests most of the listed polls failed to meet one or more of the RNC criteria. Two were conducted before the qualifying window opened. One national poll and two state polls did not include enough Republican respondents to meet the minimum requirements. And another national poll would not count toward debate qualification per RNC rules because it was produced by a company affiliated with presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy.
A July Harvard CAPS-Harris poll shows Suarez polling at 1% among Democrats but with less support among Republicans.
Only two of the polls listed by the PAC — the national Morning Consult poll and Fox Business’ July Iowa poll — appear to meet the RNC criteria, possibly leaving Suarez short by two polls.
At the Iowa State Fair, Suarez told reporters that he supported the RNC’s minimum polling threshold for access to the debate stage. But he also qualified the statement saying, “one of the things that I think is a bit unfair is that there’s a lot of polls that I haven’t been in, and it’s a disadvantage.”
Suarez’s campaign did not respond to days of questions about whether he had, in fact, met the debate criteria — until Suarez posted Friday on social media that he would be participating.
“While our campaign only began a few weeks ago, I am humbled knowing that Republicans from all fifty states have donated to our campaign — nearly 50,000 thus far,” reads Suarez’s post. “Now, I will renew my efforts to tell America about how I’ve used conservative ideas to turn Miami into a shining example of what our party can be. A party that cares and delivers. A party where your future is only limited by your own efforts.”
Keith Naughton, a veteran Republican strategist based in Washington, told the Herald that Suarez’s apparent dispute with the RNC could serve as an excuse to continue on with his campaign — even after saying that candidates who don’t qualify for the first debate should drop out of the race. But ultimately, he said, it puts Suarez in a tough position.
“I think he wants to get on national television, prove to his donors that he’s actually done something. It’s probably his last stab at trying to be relevant at all,” Naughton said. “But jumping the gun like this — if he doesn’t make it, it’s embarrassing.”
This story was originally published August 18, 2023 at 11:39 AM.
