Florida GOP stretches lead over Democrats in final registration data before midterms
Heading into the last month of Florida’s midterm election campaign, Republicans have stretched their statewide advantage over Democrats in registered voters — and continue to chip away at the partisan gap in Miami-Dade, long a Democratic stronghold.
That’s according to the latest registration data, released monthly by the state of Florida. It is the final release of numbers before the Nov. 8 election. This dashboard of data provides maps that visualize the breakdown — statewide; in newly redrawn Florida congressional districts, which could tilt races in favor of Republicans and help the GOP retake control of the U.S. House; and at the county and ZIP code level.
The trend is clear and ongoing: Both the percentage of Florida voters who identify as Republicans and the share of voters affiliated with neither major party have surged, while the percentage of Democrats has fallen in all but a pair of counties.
For years, Florida Republicans have been making gains in registration at the expense of once-dominant Democrats. But it wasn’t until November 2021 that active registered Republicans outnumbered Democrats for the first time. Gov. Ron DeSantis and Florida Republicans have celebrated the milestone ever since.
Now, registered Republicans lead Democrats by a little over one percentage point.
The total number of registered voters increased by over 55,000 in the most recent data. Republicans gained over 22,000 registered voters in the state while Democrats gained a little over 3,500 and NPAs gained almost 28,000.
How does Miami-Dade look?
To show voter affiliation by geographic location in Miami-Dade, the Herald grouped registered voters based on their home ZIP codes. Around 5,000 voters are not included in the following visualizations because they chose to be exempt from public records. They are included in the county’s total registered voters by party.
How has party affiliation changed in Florida since the last midterm?
The portion of registered voters not affiliated with any political party has steadily risen. From August 2018 (month of the the last midyear primary) to August 2022, that number increased a percentage point and a half.
In 2022, the Florida Legislature voted to accept a new congressional map submitted by DeSantis. This map shows that despite the near-equal breakdown of Republicans vs. Democrats, Republicans have the numeric advantage in 20 out of 28 congressional districts. The new map has been criticized by Democrats, who say it deliberately dilutes the influence of Black voters, reversing 30 years of representation in historically Black neighborhoods in Jacksonville and Orlando.
Although the new map is still being challenged in court, it will be used for the November elections.
Before the midterms, Republicans in Congress held 16 seats out of 27 seats. Ten are held by Democrats and one is vacant.
The counties that have seen the sharpest Republican gains tend to have smaller populations and are mostly concentrated in the Florida Panhandle: Lafayette, Liberty and Taylor.
Democrats have lost a lot of ground since 2018. They saw decreases in their percentages in all but two Florida counties — Seminole and Alachua, where their gains were less than one percentage point.
In all, Republicans outnumber Democrats in 52 of 67 Florida counties even though the overall statewide gap remains marginal.
A note about these numbers: Although the Florida Division of Elections publishes data that include only active voters on their site, the Herald included active and inactive voters in all calculations and graphics, since inactive voters are still eligible to vote.
Voters are classified as inactive when an “address confirmation” final notice sent by election officials is returned “undeliverable” or fails to elicit a response within 30 days. If they do not return to the polls over the next two federal general elections, request a mail ballot or change their registration information, inactive voters are removed from the rolls.
Miami Herald investigative reporter Sarah Blaskey contributed to this report.
This story was originally published October 6, 2022 at 12:57 PM.
