‘Roe is on the ballot’: Court decision will reverberate in midterms and beyond

The U.S. Supreme Court’s landmark decision Friday to revoke the constitutional right to abortion will affect federal and state elections for a generation, say leading politicians, inserting into the country’s already bare-knuckled political scene a contentious debate over how to regulate the procedure.

Overturning Roe v. Wade is less a political event, they say, than a cultural earthquake — one with consequences that are unpredictable but could reverberate for the foreseeable future.

“This fall, Roe is on the ballot,” President Joe Biden said Friday, laying out the political stakes of the Supreme Court’s decision. “Personal freedoms are on the ballot. The right to privacy, liberty, equality, are all on the ballot.”

Impact on midterm elections

Biden was talking about November’s midterm elections, when voters in every state will choose to support a slate of candidates — state lawmakers, governors, representatives to Congress and senators — all of whom now have substantially more discretion to determine abortion regulations in the country.

Republicans voice support for nationwide restrictions

In the hours after the ruling, top Republicans such as former Vice President Mike Pence and House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy voiced support for laws that would restrict abortion nationwide, the kind of measures that haven’t been a part of national campaigns since Roe was decided 50 years ago.

“By returning the question of abortion to the states and to the people, this Supreme Court has righted an historic wrong and reaffirmed the right of the American people to govern themselves at the state level in a manner consistent with their values and aspirations,” Pence said in an interview published Friday by Breitbart.

Even Democratic strategists quietly concede that while the decision will benefit their party politically, it will unlikely reverse their political fortunes in a year when the party is expected to suffer steep electoral losses amid the public’s deep concerns about the economy. The question is whether a social issue, even one as viscerally important to some as abortion rights, can override many voters’ worries about rising inflation.

Democrats warn about criminalizing procedure

Democratic leaders including Biden, who support abortion rights, argue that Republicans want to criminalize the procedure nationwide as soon as next year, after the midterm elections.

“Let’s be 100% clear,” tweeted Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut. “If Republicans win control of the House, Senate and White House two years from now, they will pass a national abortion ban. And no matter where you live, no matter how pro-choice your state is, women and doctors will be locked up for practicing health care.”

Democratic candidates have for years tried to use abortion rights as a wedge issue against Republicans, frequently citing it on the campaign trail in a wide range of races. That approach has yielded mixed results. After Friday’s decision, however, party strategists are hopeful the public will see the issue differently.

Democrats are in danger of losing their slim majorities in both the House and Senate this year, the latter of which the party controls by just a single vote.

‘Trigger-law’ states

Even more than the national debate over abortion rights, however, the political battle in individual states could take center stage in the aftermath of the court’s ruling. States, through their elected representatives and governors, now have the ability to outright ban the procedure.

Some states took steps even before Friday’s ruling to revoke the constitutional right to abortion.

Thirteen states were poised to do so before the ruling was issued Friday, with so-called “trigger laws” meant to activate if Roe was struck down.

“Texas will always fight for the innocent unborn, and I will continue working with the Texas Legislature and all Texans to save every child from the ravages of abortion and help our expectant mothers in need,” Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said in a statement. (Texas was one of the state’s with a “trigger law.”)

Fallout in tossup states

The debate could be especially heated in purple states, where lawmakers are already beginning to negotiate over what restrictions should be allowed. Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, for example, already moved Friday to establish a 15-week ban on abortions, according to The Washington Post.

Democratic strategists who work on state legislative races said the issue would be a primary focus of their campaigns, especially in more politically moderate areas where they think voters will shy from proposals that would severely restrict the procedure.

“You’re seeing all indications that this will be a really main issue that our Democrats are running on, particularly in the suburbs,” said Christina Polizzi, spokeswoman for the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, a group that helps Democratic state legislative candidates across the country.

This story was originally published June 24, 2022 at 7:35 PM.