Florida’s Election Day voters carried Trump to victory in 2016. Will they do it again?
President Donald Trump had a huge Election Day in 2016 that carried him to victory in must-win Florida. Can he do it again?
Trump likely heads into Tuesday facing a deficit. About 108,000 more Democrats than Republicans had voted through Sunday, the final day of in-person early voting. But that doesn’t take into account independents and minor party voters, or party switchers.
Campaign operatives on both sides of the aisle believe Biden is likely winning independents, though they disagree on the margins.
There is general consensus that when the polls open Tuesday at 7 a.m., Trump will need his supporters to outnumber voters backing Democratic nominee Joe Biden. But no one knows exactly what that number is. Estimates of Biden’s pre-Election Day lead by political operatives from both parties range significantly — from 125,000 to 600,000 votes — and it’s likely that tens of thousands of mail ballots that will count toward the election have yet to arrive at elections offices by the 7 p.m. Tuesday deadline.
Another question heading into Tuesday: Who will show up on Election Day in an election that has seen record early voting and mail voting during a pandemic that has upended historical voting patterns?
“We are right where we need to be and we will continue to get out the vote,” Trump campaign spokeswoman Emma Vaughn said. “Florida will deliver 29 electoral votes for President Trump.”
In 2016, Trump went into Election Day trailing then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in Florida by slightly less than 250,000 votes. But by the end of that day, around 360,000 more voters had gone to the polls for Trump than Clinton.
“Trump won Election Day over Hillary Clinton by 13 points,” said Dan Smith, a University of Florida political science professor who complies and analyzes voter data from across the state. “Is he going to be able to do that this time around? I wouldn’t underestimate that.”
So far, 61% of registered Republicans have already voted compared to 60.6% of Democrats, which gives Democrats a small advantage in raw numbers because there are about 200,000 more Democrats than Republicans in the state. Smith’s analysis includes inactive voters, who are eligible to vote but aren’t included in voter registration figures made available by the Florida Division of Elections.
“Republicans know how to turn out the vote on Election Day,” Smith said. “I expect a furious effort to get individuals who canceled their vote-by-mail ballots and newly registered Republicans who haven’t had a chance to vote for Trump to the polls.”
Trump must win Florida if he wants a second term, and Democrats have argued that a Biden victory on Election Day will all but assure a Trump loss nationwide. During a rally at the Miami-Opa locka Executive Airport that began late Sunday night and continued into the early morning hours on Monday, Trump predicted that Election Day would reward him again.
“I don’t know if you know what’s happening, but they’re very worried, the Democrats, about Florida,” Trump said. “They’re very concerned. The vote’s not there for them.”
Biden campaign advisor Christian Ulvert said Trump would need to match or exceed his 2016 Election Day performance to win Florida again, and a 2020 turnout rate that is likely to exceed 2016 gives Democrats an advantage.
“Florida is being Florida and everybody expected it to be Florida,” Ulvert said, alluding to the state’s history of narrowly decided elections. “But the energy and enthusiasm is on our side.”
Republicans helped Trump pull closer to Biden in the last two weeks by posting big numbers at early voting centers. But on Sunday, Florida Democrats — whose advantage has been built through mail ballots — cast more ballots than Republicans. According to figures posted Monday morning by the Florida Division of Elections, just over 100,000 votes cast by Democrats were processed Sunday, the final day of early voting in Florida. Florida Republicans, meanwhile, cast about 88,000 ballots.
Through Sunday evening, 8.974 million ballots had been cast early and by mail in Florida, nearly matching the entire 9.5 million votes cast in the 2016 presidential election. Of those votes, 39% were cast by Democrats, 38% by Republicans and 21.5% by independent voters unaffiliated with either party. By the time Election Day is done, analysts expect more Republicans will have cast votes than Democrats — leaving independents and party switchers to potentially decide the race.
“I think it’s hard to see Biden pulling this off in Florida, in my opinion, unless there’s a massive wave of registered Republicans that defect,” said Nelson Diaz, chairman of the Republican Party of Miami-Dade County.
One Democratic data firm, Hawkfish, estimates that Biden’s lead may be as high as 600,000 votes as of Nov. 1, using state data and its own analysis of Florida voters’ partisan leanings. That analysis has a big caveat: About 250,000 votes have been cast by voters the firm considers “unknown,” so their political leanings can’t be predicted.
Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker said traditional voting patterns that favor the GOP on Election Day might not play out the usual way this year. He said more Republicans are likely voting early and by mail, and and that many voters who generally have voted in-person on Election Day out of habit are making different plans this year.
“Traditionally, Dems vote early and by mail, and the GOP tends to vote on Election Day,” Coker said. “I think tradition is sort of a little bit less reliable this time around. I don’t think it’s a given that those people who vote on Election Day will break hard for Trump.”
Coker was careful to say that neither candidate is a favorite heading into Tuesday. And he wouldn’t make any predictions with so many voters who normally vote on Election Day having already turned out.
“I don’t there’s a magic number out there” for Trump on Election Day, he said, “because I think there’s going to be so little left on the table.”
This story was originally published November 2, 2020 at 11:38 AM.
