Choosing Val Demings as VP could help Joe Biden but won’t lock up Florida, experts say

In Joe Biden’s ongoing vice president search, Florida Rep. Val Demings brings a lot to the ticket.

The Orlando ex-police chief garnered high marks from Democrats for her role in Donald Trump’s impeachment trial, when she served as an impeachment manager. She’s immersed herself in national security issues in the House Intelligence Committee. And many Democrats are clamoring for a Black woman to be a major party’s vice presidential nominee for the first time.

Biden, who has said he plans to name a running mate by Aug. 1, would greatly increase his chances of beating President Donald Trump if he can win Florida. And Florida Democrats like Central Florida Rep. Darren Soto have argued that nominating Demings would “help put Biden over the top here in Florida.”

But putting the Central Florida congresswoman on the ticket with a goal of winning Florida’s 29 electoral votes isn’t likely to work — if you use past elections as a guide, according to operatives who served on presidential campaigns and experts who study the vice presidency.

“Val Demings is very unlikely to deliver the state of Florida and that’s not because of any weakness in Val Demings’ candidacy,” said University of Dayton professor Christopher Devine, who recently published a book titled Do Running Mates Matter? “There’s a longstanding perception that vice presidential candidates give a boost to the home state but the research really doesn’t bear that out.”

Devine said Demings, who has only ever faced voters in the Orlando area, is less well-known than other recent vice presidential nominees from swing states, and none of them were able to meaningfully alter the race in their home states. In 2012, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan failed to deliver his home state to the GOP as part of Mitt Romney’s ticket, and in 2004, North Carolina voted Republican despite Democratic Sen. John Edwards’ presence on the Democratic ticket with John Kerry.

Elaine Kamarck, a former adviser for Al Gore’s presidential campaign in 2000 who now researches the presidential nomination process for the Brookings Institution, said presidential candidates began to move away from selecting a running mate based on balancing the ticket beginning with Bill Clintion in 1992. Instead, she said candidates choose running mates based on who they think would make an effective governing partner.

“Gore, [Dick] Cheney, Biden and to a lesser degree [Mike] Pence — none of them were chosen to carry a state,” Kamarck said. “None of those choices have been political choices. They’ve been a governing choice.”

Biden has a long list of governing partners to choose from, and he’s already committed to picking a woman, a political choice that matters to many Democratic voters.

Demings has been frequently mentioned, but the list of reported candidates is long: California Sen. Kamala Harris, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, former National Security Advisor Susan Rice, Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams, Illinois Sen. Tammy Duckworth, California Rep. Karen Bass, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, among others.

Biden said this week that four Black women are in contention to be his running mate, though he wouldn’t name names. The Biden campaign and Demings did not respond to a request for comment on the nomination process.

And while Biden hasn’t committed to choosing a Black woman to be on the ticket with him, a Politico poll released last week showed increasing support from Democrats for Biden to pick a Black woman. In Florida, Demings has picked up the most endorsements for the job but Harris has been second, with Broward County’s Rep. Alcee Hastings signing on.

Bass, the California representative who referred to Cuban leader Fidel Castro respectfully as “comandante en jefe,” or commander in chief, after his death in 2016, would likely face opposition from South Florida Democrats.

Warren and Harris have consistently topped national polls on who Democrats want Biden to choose as his running mate, although that may be attributed in part to their own national profiles after 2020 presidential runs.

Demings’ law enforcement career may be a plus, but it has also drawn criticism from some progressive Democrats.

When she was the chief of the Orlando Police Department, she defended the actions of a police officer who broke the neck of 84-year-old World War II veteran Daniel Daley in 2010 while responding to a parking dispute between Daley and a tow truck driver. And some community activists in Orlando said she didn’t do enough to fight systemic racism in the department while she was in charge of it, from 2007 to 2011.

But other Florida Democrats argue she would energize volunteers and at least marginally help drive turnout across the state.

“Demings gives us the best shot of taking Florida,” said William Byatt, a Bernie Sanders delegate from Miami-Dade County and member of the county’s progressive caucus, in an interview last week. “But I do think that to some extent any pick who is not a Latina would be a bit of a wash for South Florida. In South Florida in particular, coronavirus issues will be bigger than who is second on the ticket.”

Devine said Biden’s vice presidential pick is important to voters as it allows them to gauge his decision-making process. He said recent vice presidential nominees, with the exception of Sarah Palin in 2008, were largely viewed as sensible choices who swing voters could envision as president and did not drive voters away from the top of the ticket.

“I just find it very hard to believe that a voter would say I’m going to vote for Joe Biden simply as a matter of pride in electing a fellow Floridian, especially if this voter is coming from Miami or Jacksonville or some other part of the state Demings doesn’t represent,” Devine said.

Devine said Demings could be at a disadvantage compared to Warren and Harris because voters have already considered the two senators for president.

“What really matters to voters is not necessarily what is on your résumé but the perception of if you are qualified,” Devine said. “If you apply that to 2020, Val Demings would be at a disadvantage. [Harris and Warren] have already auditioned for the role of the presidency. It would be easier for voters to see them as a qualified president or vice president because they already considered them in that context.”

Matt Bennett, a former campaign aide and White House staffer for Clinton and Gore who now leads the Washington-based center-left think tank Third Way, said the most important attribute for a running mate in modern times is the chemistry they have with the nominee and their capacity to make tough decisions.

Biden, in particular, understands that dynamic because he was trusted by President Barack Obama to weigh in on big decisions throughout his tenure as vice president, Bennett said.

“I think a former vice president making this choice — you saw it with Gore and George H.W. Bush. They are choosing somebody to play a role they have played,” Bennett said. “The inevitable truth about being president is even if you have super capable staff around you, you need at least one other person who can tell you the truth all the time even when you’re making a mistake.”

Bennett said Demings’ law enforcement background could help her standing in Biden’s VP search if he’s focused on who can best help him think through tough decisions.

“She’s a very savvy politician but she’s also had to tell hard truths to people,” Bennett said.

Correction: A previous version of this story misidentified the state Rep. Karen Bass represents.

This story was originally published July 23, 2020 at 6:00 AM.