What's in the Iran Deal and Does It Meet US War Aims?
The United States has said that it is close to a deal to end the Iran war, but there are still conflicting messages over what each side is prioritizing.
The countries continue to hold sharply different positions on Tehran’s nuclear program, its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium (HEU), and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. While some details of a potential agreement have emerged, many do not appear to address the core concerns that prompted the U.S. and Israel to launch the war in February.
"The blowback from a bad deal will be significant," former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Len Khodorkovsky told Newsweek.
What We Know About the Deal
There are conflicting reports about what has been called a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding (MOU) that might lead to a final agreement.
President Donald Trump said on May 23 that a deal to end the war had been "largely negotiated" and was awaiting finalization, while Tehran's officials are presenting the possible MOU as contingent on U.S. concessions and continued Iranian leverage.
There have been reports that an incremental approach may have been agreed upon, starting with the most urgent issues: ending the war and guaranteeing safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. They would then move on to more technically and politically difficult matters, such as the nuclear program.
Safe embed will be rendered here
Crude oil prices – 5/25/2026
Service URL: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/27961719/embed
Re-Opening the Strait of Hormuz
Reporting on draft frameworks includes consistent elements of any deal, such as Iran’s reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the restoration of maritime traffic. The strait is an international waterway through which one-fifth of the world's energy transits. Traffic dwindled from around 100 vessels a day before the war to only a handful.
Trump says any deal involves reopening the strait but has not clarified whether that would mean Tehran would have sovereignty there. Meanwhile, Iranian officials have introduced transit tolls, which they are presenting as "protection fees" against attacks.
Tehran has said it could reopen the strait to some traffic in exchange for the U.S. ending its blockade of Iranian ports, which began on April 13 after the failure of talks in Islamabad. However, Tehran has continued to claim that it, along with Oman, controls the Strait of Hormuz as territorial waters.
A U.S. official said a draft agreement would fully open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the U.S. lifting its blockade of Iranian ports.
"On the Strait, Iran has consistently insisted on recognition of its sovereignty-related role, but it has recently shown greater flexibility regarding demands for transit tolls," Hamidreza Azizi, an Iran expert from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told Newsweek.
Tehran says it will only re-open the strait to civilian ships under "Iranian arrangements," and Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said Iran must leverage the strait for economic gain. This contradicts the U.S. position on freedom of navigation, because freedom of navigation through an international waterway has no "arrangements" imposed by another state.
Safe embed will be rendered here
Strait of Hormuz traffic – 5/17/2026
Service URL: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/28075349/embed
Sanctions Relief
Iran wants the unfreezing of $25 billion in the first phase of sanctions relief, with frozen funds released further over time.
The U.S. has proposed a package to Tehran that includes releasing 25 percent of Iran's frozen assets-about $25 billion-allowing uranium transfer abroad, and accepting 3.67 percent enrichment limits, according to reports.
Iran has demanded that the U.S. immediately release the first half of frozen Iranian assets upon signing the agreement and the second half within 60 days, according to Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) media.
However, the Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry has said that Iran would use its unfrozen assets to reconstitute its ballistic missile and drone programs, which would be unacceptable to the U.S.
“The main sticking point is whether the United States is prepared to remove the naval blockade at an early stage and release at least part of the frozen Iranian assets as part of an initial package,” Azizi told Newsweek.
Nuclear Program
Iran has not publicly committed to removing its HEU stockpiles or to halting uranium enrichment, despite the Trump administration’s claims to the contrary.
Iranian officials have stated that any U.S. demand for zero enrichment-or a return to the 3.6 percent level in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) struck between Iran and the U.S in 2015-would be a red line for Tehran.
Trump insisted any deal must be "great and meaningful," and rejected "anything like the JCPOA," which eased sanctions in return for curbs on Tehran's nuclear program.
Azizi said if the objective is a framework agreement or memorandum of understanding, both the Strait of Hormuz issue and the nuclear question can be managed.
"On the nuclear issue, the technical complexity of the matter inevitably requires detailed negotiations," he said. “I would expect the framework agreement to include a general formulation stating that Iran commits not to pursue nuclear weapons, while leaving the technical details for future negotiations."
Khodorkovsky, who is senior adviser to the chairman of the Krach Institute for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue University, said: “allowing a weak and broke regime to survive-and resurrect its nuclear program at the earliest opportunity, even if that's after President Trump leaves office-will undoubtedly haunt us.”
"It will be much harder and much costlier to deal with a richer and stronger regime later,” he added.
Safe embed will be rendered here
Iran War Strikes
Service URL: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/x6Mjs/1/
Reaction and Response on Both Sides
Azizi said there are hard-liners on both the Iranian and U.S. sides who firmly oppose any deal seen as insufficient for priorities and maximalist demands. "I believe this constraint is currently even stronger on the U.S. side than on the Iranian side," he said.
As of May 26, Iran and the United States had not bridged differences on all the major demands. Iranian officials said they would not discuss their nuclear program and that the U.S. should observe Iran's right to enrich uranium on Iranian territory.
Meanwhile, mediators and U.S. officials have said they will not offer economic relief to Iran without serious commitments from Iran on its nuclear program, which the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) described as “a major impasse.”
Abraham Accords
Potentially complicating the prospect of an Iran deal, Trump has also linked an agreement with Tehran to a broader diplomatic push expanding the Abraham Accords-the 2020 normalization agreements between Israel and several Arab states.
Trump posted on Truth Social that negotiations are "proceeding nicely," but tied any eventual agreement to expanded participation in the accords struck during his first term.
Trump said on Monday that he asked Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Jordan to join the Abraham Accords to normalize relations with Israel as part of a broader regional diplomatic push to end the war with Iran. However, Pakistan rejected the proposal, while no other countries have reacted to Trump's demand.
"Trump's demand that more states join the Abraham Accords as part of a deal is totally unrealistic," Benjamin H. Friedman, the policy director of the Defense Priorities think tank, told Newsweek. "Hopefully it's a symbolic sop to the Israelis before constraining them in Lebanon; most likely it's just empty talk."
Friedman said that a U.S.-Iran ceasefire that reopens the Strait of Hormuz and defers talks on nuclear issues is "probably the best outcome under the circumstances."
"The Trump administration should close this deal, which is essentially what Iran reportedly offered weeks ago," he added.
2026 NEWSWEEK DIGITAL LLC.
This story was originally published May 27, 2026 at 10:21 AM.